Will Hot & Dry Weather Stop The Freefall? The Corn & Ethanol Report

We started off the day with Business Inventories, Retail Sales MoM (MAY), Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM (MAY), NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (JUNE), PPI MoM & YOY (MAY), Core PPI MoM & YoY (MAY) and Retail Sales at 7:30 A.M., Redbook YoY at 7:55 A.M., Capacity Utilization (MAY), Industrial Production YoY & MoM (MAY), and Manufacturing Production YoY & MoM at 8:15 A.M., Business Inventories MoM (APR) and NAHB Housing Market Index (JUN) at 9:00 A.M., 52-Week and 42-Day Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., NOPA Crush at 11:00 A.M., 20-Year Bond Auction at 12:00 P.M., Overall Net Capital Flows (APR), Foreign Bond Investment (APR) and Net Long Term Tic Flows (APR) at 3:00 P.M., API Energy Stocks at 3:30 P.M. and the beginning of the Fed two-day monetary policy. Paul Tudor Jones, the billionaire hedge fund manager said, “ The most important meeting in Jay Powell’s career.” How he deemed inflation “transitory” according to Paul Tudor Jones, the scary thing is he may buckle and cut rates tomorrow.

green-leafed plants

Image Source: Unsplash

On the Corn front, there are many pontificators throwing opinions on the U.S. crop that threw the market into a frenzy of selling activity. We will soon see how correct they are as hot and dry weather continues and moves to the Midwest. Will the Drought Index reach high on the Plains? Not sure yet. I do not believe the South American crop is all that healthy as other headlines tell us. Only their exports can prove me wrong and change my mind. We will be looking at weather and U.S. exports and watching China’s participation for being a solid purchaser. In the overnight electronic session, the July corn is currently trading at 658 ¾ which is a ½ of a cent lower. The trading range has been 665 to 655 ½.

On the Ethanol front, Tom Daschle former politician from South Dakota said the new administration will put ethanol into “orbit.” I am not sure what that means but he should stay in retirement as Kristi Noem put the state first. With the weather for corn challenging to say the least in the Plains, it also challenges the industry. The market needs luck and effective leadership while we watch this current administration making decisions and not in the front lines in the energy or grain sector. There were no trades posted in the overnight electronic session. The July contract settled at 2.460 and is currently showing no market with Open Interest at 20 contracts.

On the Crude Oil front, the market has moved above $70 a Barrel, and shortages of productivity could move it to over $80 a barrel this summer. Throw in inflation with transportation costs it will make it rougher for the consumer at the pump. If they even can fill your tank. Today’s API Energy Stocks may shore up what it is like not being energy sufficient. Another trip down memory lane. In the overnight electronic session, the July crude oil is currently trading at 7143 which is 55 points higher. The trading range has been 7155 to 7081.

On the Natural Gas front, we are again locking horns with those opposed to let the free market do its job. The spike in natural gas is mainly due to hot & dry weather and pipelines to fill the void or keep the power grid afloat are circumvented from getting product where it is needed most. Weather, whether it is bone-chilling cold or hotter than the inferno regions this market is the best at supplying the demand need at a moment’s notice. In the overnight electronic session, the July natural gas is currently trading at 3.360 which is .008 higher. The trading range has been 3.369 to 3.343.

Disclaimer: A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in ...

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