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• Wheat price has plunged by more than 59% from its highest point in 2022.
• The US expects that its yield and ending stockpiles will be higher.
• Russia also had a higher wheat yield than expected.

Wheat price continued its sell-off this week as concerns about supply and demand continued. The price crashed to a low of $533 on Monday, the lowest level since September 2020. It has plunged by more than 59% from the highest point in March 2022 making it one of the worst-performing commodities in the world.

Wheat price has crashed even as the war in Ukraine continued and as a drought leads to supply shortages. A key issue recently was the Black Sea deal that ended two months ago. This was an important deal that enabled Ukraine to safely move its wheat grains internationally.

At the same time, many European countries that produce wheat have gone through severe weather. Some of the most affected countries are Greece, Spain, and Italy. In a statement, the Monitoring Agricultural Resources (MARS) said that the wheat yield will be 5.8 metric tons per hectare this year. 

Other countries like Australia and the United States are seeing lower yields. At the same time, Russia, the biggest wheat exporter, is doing well. The most recent data shows that Russia’s wheat production jumped this year, offsetting a sharp decline in Ukraine.

The most recent trigger for the wheat price sell-off was a report by the USDA. In a statement, the department said that the US will have higher domestic production and stockpiles than estimated. It now expected that the US will harvest 1.81 billion bushels, 78 million higher than expected. The US also had over 1.78 billion wheat stocks. 
 

Wheat price forecast

(Click on image to enlarge)

Turning to the daily chart, we see that wheat price formed a double-top pattern at $764.4 in July and August. In technical analysis, this pattern is one of the most bearish signs in the market. Now, wheat has crashed below the key support at $609.8, the neckline of the double-top pattern.

Wheat has also plunged below the important support at $583.1, the lowest point on May 31st. Most importantly, wheat has dropped below the 50-day and 100-day moving averages while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved below the oversold level.

Therefore, the outlook for wheat, at least in the near term, is relatively bearish, with the next level to watch being at $500. A break below $500 will lead to more downside as sellers target the key support at $450. In the long term, wheat prices will bounce back as demand continues rising and as the impact of climate change intensifies.

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