Wheat Elliott Wave Analysis
Function - Counter Trend
Mode - Corrective
Structure -Zigzag for wave (B)
Position - Wave A of (B)
Direction - Wave A is still in play
Details -  Wave A of (B) is about to complete and thus, we should see a bullish correction for wave B soon.

Wheat prices are currently retreating, but as long as they do not breach the March 2024 low, there is a significant chance that the recovery from March will continue. The long-term trend remains bearish, and the current recovery phase is retracing this trend and may extend much higher.

Daily Chart Analysis:

On the daily chart, the bearish trend that extended from March 2022 to March 2024 completed an impulse wave structure. From the low of 523’4 in March 2024, a bullish correction began as expected. The initial response off 523’4 completed an impulse rally, indicating that this corrective phase could evolve into either a zigzag or a double zigzag structure. Thus, we expect at least a zigzag pattern composed of waves (A), (B), and (C). The surge from the March 2024 low completed wave (A) with an impulse, and the price is now correcting this in wave (B). After the completion of wave (B), we should see another leg higher in wave (C). This is the minimum expectation for the current recovery phase in Wheat.

(Click on image to enlarge)

H4 Chart Analysis:

The H4 chart focuses on wave (B). The decline from the wave (A) top at 720’4 completed an impulse. A pullback for wave (B) is expected to be a corrective structure. However, the decline so far has completed an impulse wave, which could now be labeled as wave A of (B). This suggests that wave (B) should continue its formation in the near term. It is likely that wave (B) will take the form of another zigzag pattern (A-B-C), as long as the 523’6 low is not breached. If this level is breached, it would imply that the long-term bullish correction has either completed very shallowly, or a more complex scenario must be considered to better understand the situation.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Summary:

Wheat prices are retreating but as long as the March 2024 low of 523’4 remains intact, the recovery from March is likely to continue. The long-term trend is bearish, and the current recovery is a retracement of this trend, which may extend much higher. 

On the daily chart, the bearish impulse wave from March 2022 to March 2024 completed at 523’4, initiating a bullish correction. The initial rally completed wave (A) with an impulse, and the price is now correcting this in wave (B). We expect at least a zigzag pattern (A-B-C) for this corrective phase.

On the H4 chart, the decline from wave (A) at 720’4 completed an impulse, which is likely wave A of (B). Wave (B) should continue forming, likely as a zigzag pattern, as long as the 523’6 low is not breached. If the low is breached, it would indicate that the long-term bullish correction is either complete or a more complex scenario needs to be considered to accurately read the market conditions.

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