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The grain deal, which expired in mid-March, has not yet been properly negotiated, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on April 25 – hence, it can’t be implemented as is. “Despite the fact that so much time has passed, it has not yet been implemented. It has not become a package deal. Those conditions that concerned us have not been addressed. So circumstances are not yet in favor of this deal. We will keep watching,” he said.

Let’s remember, that the Black Sea grain deal signed by representatives of Russia, Turkey, Ukraine and the UNO on July 22, 2022, and involved provisions for uninterrupted, despite wartime, export of Ukrainian grain, food and fertilizers via the normal Black Sea routes. The package deal also included unblocking Russian exports of food and fertilizers. Moscow noted that this is exactly what is not being implemented, despite assurances from the UN.

Meanwhile, wheat markets remain in denial. The Chicago wheat contracts were trading downwards, while only one sortation, MPLS wheat, edged up just 2 cents.  May SRW was profoundly down 18.5 cents on the day, while other nearby contracts were down 10–16 cents. Preliminary open interest fell by 4,800 contracts and May contracts fell by 10,913 after options expired.

U.S. weekly crop progress data showed that 5% of the spring wheat crop had been planted, compared to the 12% average. Winter wheat were alarmingly 18%  down YTD as of April 23. Converted NASS, The U.S. National Agricultural Statistics Service, data showed South Dakota's winter wheat crop fell the most in the week, from 309 to 272 contracts. 

Weekly inspection data showed wheat exports for the week ended April 20 at 363,826 tonnes. Weekly data showed total shipments for the quarter at 17,866 MMT, down 2.8% YoY.

Summary:

On Monday, April 24, most winter wheat futures undertook an unsuccessful, so far, attempt to gain on the news. The attempt was bought out by the speculators. Nevertheless, the first real price advance episode may suggest the wheat downward spiral may be coming to an end. Euronext and CBOT futures have already developed quite an apparent decoupling, so that increasing presence of the speculative arbitrators will likely stop the confusing disarray. All eyes are on the extension of the Black Sea Grain deal!

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