Photo by Sindy Süßengut on Unsplash

Market Analysis

The USDA’s June acreage report again provided some surprises concerning the 2022’s overall US plantings. Some shifting between regions of corn & soybeans seedings because of this year’s extremely wet spring in the N Plains was expected. Corn’s 430,000 acre advance to 89.92 million from March was only 60,000 acres above the trade’s average estimate. The Dakotas were down 900,000 while MN, IA, and WI were 900,000 larger and IL & IN were unchanged. The unexpected planting update came in soybeans. The USDA’s 2.05 million lower acreage than the trade and 2.63 million declines from March’s intentions were a surprise. This year’s significantly higher unplanted corn & soybean crops of 7.82 million acres that weren’t completed by 2022’s mid-June survey closing caught the USDA’s eye. They announced a resurvey of MN, ND & SD producers to finalize this region’s seedings. These updated seedings will be published in the USDA’s August 12 crop report. This news tempered the market’s reaction to beans lower plantings since 1.8 million of June’s 2.6 million lower seedings vs March occurred in MN (-500,000), ND (1.1 million) & SD (200,000 acres).

Interestingly, 2022’s spring wheat & durum seedings were reported at 11.1 and 1.98 million each which would be a 20,000-acre yearly increase & 410,000 acres above the trade’s combined estimates. Barley seedings rose 390,000 acres while sorghum plantings declined 1 million acres from 2021. Cotton’s high prices & 2022’s dry southern US conditions jumped this crop’s seedings by 1.25 million to 12.48 million acres.

Overall, 2022’s 8 major US crops totaled 251.9 million acres. This would be 1.62 million less than 2021 & 1.84 million below the trade’s expectations. 

June’s quarterly US stocks were again near the trade’s estimates. Despite a 100 million correction in last quarter’s off-farm corn stocks (lower), both corn & wheat’s stocks were just 3 & 5 million bu higher the trade. With reduced supplies & high prices for wheat & small grains, corn will likely remain in US rations this summer. Bean stocks continued to follow their crush & export paces with a hefty residual difference.

What’s Ahead:

This year’s US seedings & prevent planting questions will now continue until the USDA’s August crop report. However, the actual rainfall from the current Midwest forecast after the upcoming July 4^th holiday is the near-term price factor. 2022s late plantings have delayed much of the US corn pollination until July 15-30. Hold your remaining 5% old-crop supplies & your new-crop sales at 25% for now.