Photo by Jeff W on Unsplash

This week, the main focus for traders will be the US inflation rate data. Economists are predicting a slight decline in inflation, which will allow investors to return to riskier assets on expectations that the Fed will be less aggressive in raising interest rates. The minutes of the Fed's last meeting on Wednesday should indicate how officials feel about the economy and the inflation outlook. The UK is due to release monthly GDP data and labor market data. Oil prices will also remain in the spotlight after OPEC+ announced the largest production cuts since 2020. And at the end of the week, the banking sector will open the earning season for the third quarter in the United States.

Monday, October 10

On Monday, there are no important economic events at the European and American sessions, so the volatility in the financial markets is likely to be quiet. It’s a bank holiday in the United States, Canada, and Japan.

Main events of the day:

• – US FOMC member Brainard Speaks at 20:35 (GMT+3).

Tuesday, October 11

On Tuesday, the UK will publish labor market data. Weak economic data could increase pressure on the government to implement long-term growth plans. Special attention should be paid to the speech of the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey.

Main events of the day:

• – Australia NAB Business Confidence (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
• – UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
• – UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
• – UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
• – US FOMC member Mester Speaks at 19:00 (GMT+3);
• – Switzerland SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks at 19:45 (GMT+3);
• – UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 21:35 (GMT+3).

Wednesday, October 12

The most important Wednesday release for investors will be the FOMC Meeting Minutes, which will provide more information on policymakers' views on inflation and the outlook for the future trajectory of interest rates. The Bank of England's Financial Policy Committee will also publish the minutes of its latest meeting. Investors are betting that the Bank of England will raise interest rates by a full percentage point at its next meeting in November to lower inflation.

Main events of the day:

• – UK GDP (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
• – UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:0 (GMT+3);
• – UK Manufacturing Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
• – UK FPC Meeting Minutes (Tentative);
• – UK FPC Statement (Tentative);
• – Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
• – US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks (m/m) at 16:30 (GMT+3);
• – US FOMC Meeting Minutes at 21:00 (GMT+3).

Thursday, October 13

On Thursday, investors should keep a close eye on the US consumer price index data. Another elevated inflation reading on Thursday will highlight the need for even more aggressiveness from the Fed, but analysts expect the annual inflation rate to fall by 0.2%. Investors should also keep an eye on data from the energy sector. Because of the holidays, oil and natural gas inventories will be released on the same day.

Main events of the day:

• – US FOMC member Bowman Speaks at 01:30 (GMT+3);
• – US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
• – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 18:00 (GMT+3).

Friday, October 14

On Friday, traders will be closely watching China's inflation data. Last week was a holiday in China, so the consumer price data was postponed by a week. Inflation in the Celestial Empire is expected to rise by 0.3% year-on-year. Another important report will be the US retail sales data, which is expected to show a modest increase for September as auto sales recovered.

Main events of the day:

• – China Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
• – China Producer Price Index (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
• – Canada Wholesale Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

More By This Author: