We kicked off the day with MBA 30-Year mortgage Rate, MBA Mortgage Applications, MBA Mortgage Market Index, MBA Mortgage Refinance Index, and MBA Purchase Index at 6:00 A.M., Fed Bostic Speech at 7:00 A.M., Redbook YoY at 7:55 A.M., 17-Week Bill Auction & 2-Year FRN Auction at 10:30 A.m., Fed Bowman & 20-Year Bond Auction at 12:00 P.M., FOMC Minutes at 1:00 P.M., Milk Production at 2:00 P.M., API Energy Stocks at 3:30 P.M.

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The Conference Board, a business membership and research organization released it’s monthly index leading economic indicators. The index in January declined 0.4% from December and was 7% less than a year ago, for the lowest index reading since may 2020. This marked the 23^rd consecutive monthly decline, the longest stretch since early 2017. On a year-over-year basis, the index marked the 19^th consecutive month of declines, the longest run since 2009. The Board has recently tempered its forecast for a financial recession in 2024 but expects real GDP growth to fall to 0% in the last half of 2024. This will have implications on US red meat demand. We should also be concerned with the Trump verdict as we can expect more Commercial Real Estate companies leave big cities in droves, which will further suck out money as the large taxes these cities force high taxes, this will have the population leave as well.

On the weather front in the US, if the 10-day forecast is accurate, February’s will average 38 degrees in the US Corn Belt – a record and being some 11 degrees above average. This will bring back talks now and maybe throughout summer as odds are high that a hot Midwest summer is ahead. Early corn planting is probable across the southern U.S. On the South American Front Brazilian rainfall intensity eases, however, there is no sign of a complete withdrawal of the monsoon yet. The most current forecast is nonthreatening into the opening days of March as extreme heat stays absent from Argentina and as enough rain will fall in Central and Northern Brazil to facilitate early safrinha corn growth. Ag Resources (ARC) notes that the intensity of rainfall in Northern Brazil fades beyond the next 4-5 days, but an outright end of the rainy season is not indicated. The two-week % of normal precipitation is expected. The primary areaof concerns covers Mato Grosso do Sul and Sao Paulo which produces 15-18% of Brazil’s safrinha corn crop and where rainfall since Jan 1^st has been recorded at just 30-40% of normal. Regular rains are needed here well into April. The focus moving forward will be placed squarely on the duration of Brazil’s wet season. March climate guidance remains hot & dry, but not until dryness has pulled into the 10-day forecasts, will weather premium be added. Long range forecast solutions offer below normal N Brazilian rainfall in March & April.

Were coming in weaker this morning correcting from Tuesday’s gains. March soybean futures have sagged to fill an open gap left by Tuesday’s opening while wheat futures lacked confirmation of fresh export demand or whether new US sanctions against Russia would alter existing banking relationships enough to impact Russian commodity trade.

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