We kicked off this morning with Export Sales, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug), Initial Jobless Claims (13/Aug), Jobless Claims 4-Week Average (13/Aug), Philly Fed Business Conditions (Aug), Philly Fed CAPEX Index (Aug), Philly Fed Employment (Aug), Philly Fed New Orders (Aug), Philly Fed Prices Paid (Aug), and Continuing Jobless Claims (06/Aug) at 7:30 A.M., Existing Home Sales (Jul), Existing Home sales MoM (Jul) and CB Leading Index MoM (Jul) at 9:00 A.M., EIA Natural Gas Storage at 9:30 A.M., 4-Week & 8-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 30-Year TIPS Auction at 12:00 P.M., Fed George Speech at 12:20 A.M., and Fed Kashkari Speech at 12:45 P.M.

Photo by Delfino Barboza on Unsplash

On the Corn Front whispers are about, with harvest coming and harvest pressure could stall corn rallies. Talk of better yields from the Corn Belt recession fears could dampen bulls passion, hence the H-word and the R-word. There are others that say yields will not be as good as the USDA prognosticates. However with today's Export Sales number and it is no secret the US has to play a role in achieving to fill a void with a global demand market. And as we move closer to winter expect demand will pick up. Brazil will be shutting down 2022 exports with their domestic demand and the Ukraine is getting more ships through the Black Sea, but what type of quality does their crop have and will they have to give a discount on prices. That’s a lot to mull over before the September 12^th Crop Production USDA Supply/Demand and WASDE data. In the overnight electronic session the September corn is currently trading at 612 ¾ which is 2 ¼ cents lower. The trading range has been 617 ½ to 612 ¼.

On the Ethanol Front production dropped nearly 4% the week ending Aug. 12, falling below 1 million barrels per day for the first time since mid-May, according to the data released by the US Energy Information Administration yesterday. Meanwhile, stocks were up nearly 1%. Ethanol production averaged 983,000 barrels per day down 39,000 (bpd) compared to 1,022 million barrels a week ago. Weekly stocks expanded to 23.446 million barrels up 190,000 barrels compared to the 23.256 million barrels last week. There was zero activity in ethanol futures.

On the Crude Oil Front prices rose as robust US fuel consumption data and expected falls in Russian supply later in the year offset concerns that a possible recession in developed economies could undercut demand. We are trading risk on right now. In the overnight electronic session the October crude oil is currently trading at 8906 which is 137 points higher. The trading range has been 8949 to 8692.

On the Natural Gas Front Germany eases natural gas tax to ease the burden on consumers, while Germany has worked hard to shore up winter supplies and at the moment they are ahead of schedule. European governments are scrambling to fill underground storage with gas supplies to provide households with enough fuel to keep homes warm in winter. Unlike the current US administration they know solar and wind power just will not cut it. Russia has drastically reduced natural gas supplies to Europe, with flows of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to Germany currently operating at 20% of agreed volumes. EIA Natural Gas Storage today and the Thomson Reuters poll with 12 analyst participating estimates range from injections of 22 bcf to 45 bcf, with the median forecast of 32 bcf. This compares to the one-year injection of 32 bcf and the five-year average of 46 bcf. In the overnight electronic session the September natural gas is currently trading at 9.266 which is 0.022 higher. The trading range has been 9.455 to 9.159.

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