We kicked off the day with MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate, MBA Mortgage Applications, MBA Mortgage Market Index, MBA Mortgage Refinance Index, and MBA Purchase Index at 5:00 A.M., Core Inflation Rate MoM & YoY, Inflation Rate MoM & YoY, Real Earnings, CPI, and CPI s.a. at 7:30 A.M., EIA Energy Stocks at 9:30 A.M., 17-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 10-Year Note Auction at 12:00 P.M., Monthly Budget Statement at 1:00 P.M., and Dairy Products Sales at 2:00 P.M.

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The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed that US job openings in January rose by 232,000 (3.1%) to 774 million. Compared to a year ago, job openings were down 8.6%, marking the 30^th consecutive month of year-over-year declines as the labor market continues to correct from the pandemic. Job openings in retail trade jumped by 143,000 from December, finance and insurance job openings rose by 58,000. Openings for professional and business services fell by 122,000. The largest increase in job openings was in the Western region (90,000) and the Northeast rose by 82,000. New hires increased by 19,000 to 5.39 million and total separations were up 170,000 at 5.25 million. Job quits increased to 3.266 million, the highest since July 2024.

Analysis of USDA March WASDE

WASDE lowered 24/25 Chinese imports another 2MMT’s to 8 MMT’s – vs. – 23.4 MMT’s in crop year 23/24. Total world trade was lowered 2.8 MMT’s. The lack of a demand driver is important, and allows US, exporter and glbal stocks to increase with ease amid normal weather in spring and summer. Yet, corn will outperform soybeans and if it remains that there’s limited tolerance for supply dislocation USDA raised exporter stocks/use, in 24/25 will be the third lowest on record,and assumes trend safrinha yields in Brazil. Even amid China’s absence exporter corn stocks/use drops to test record low if Brazil loses just 3% of it’s safrinha crop to heat/dryness in April. The big surprise was that ending stocks for corn and wheat came in higher, as the street was expecting much lower numbers with positive corn & ethanol exports. The market is still digesting this report. Rallies will be sold, but the tight nature of global inventories between now and late summer/autumn does provide opportunities. CONAB updates its Brazilian production estimate tomorrow, which could change the bearish pall on the market at the moment. The market settled lower in yesterday’s action and having a continuation in the overnight session, and depending on tomorrows CONAB data, we could see the bulls back on the dance floor.

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