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The US Dollar has turned lower on the back of the July FOMC yesterday. The Fed hiked rates by a further .25%, as expected, taking rates to their highest level in 22 years. Additionally, the bank was seen leaving the door open to further tightening, noting that the battle against inflation was not yet over which might make it appropriate to do more. Notably, the bank explained that it is no longer forecasting a recession in the US with activity and jobs growth expanding at a moderate pace.
 

Data on Watch

While the Fed has signalled that further tightening might still be necessary, it seems the market is taking a different view. With two month’s worth of data to come before the next rate decision, there is plenty of room for inflation to cool to the point where the Fed sees no reason to hike, based on current trajectory. Pricing for the September FOMC is currently sitting around 80% in favour of a pause, reflecting this view. 

With USD under pressure, gold prices are starting to turn higher and look to have room to gather momentum to the upside if the USD sell off deepens. Key to this will be assessing incoming data. Looking ahead today, US advance quarterly GDP is expected to print 1.8%, down from 2% which should keep USD pressured and gold prices supported.
 

Technical Views

Gold

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Gold prices are testing the bear channel highs and 1973.51 resistance level once again today. With momentum studies bullish now, the focus is on a break higher here and a continuation up towards the 2069.41 level next. To the downside. 1871.04 remains the key support to note. 

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