I eagerly await Trump’s major announcement for Venezuela to be the 53rd state.

Nobody But the US to Get Venezuela Oil

The Wall Street Journal reports Trump Plans Tariffs on Countries Buying Energy From Venezuela

President Trump said he would impose a 25% tariff on any country that buys oil or gas from Venezuela, an arrangement that could allow Chevron to continue to do business there.

Trump didn’t mention Chevron in a social-media post Monday, but the company had lobbied the administration to reverse its decision to revoke Chevron’s license to operate in Venezuela. The tariff idea was discussed during a White House meeting last week with Trump and Chevron Chief Executive Mike Wirth.

Trump described the move as a “secondary tariff” on Venezuela over the flow of migrants to the U.S., including members of the Tren de Aragua gang. The Trump administration has said it is deporting alleged members of the gang as part of its deportation efforts. Venezuela over the weekend said it would resume repatriation of migrants after suspending such flights because of the withdrawal of the Chevron license.

“Venezuela has been very hostile to the United States and the Freedoms which we espouse,” Trump wrote. “Therefore, any Country that purchases Oil and/or Gas from Venezuela will be forced to pay a Tariff of 25% to the United States on any Trade they do with our Country.”

The measure would go into effect on April 2, Trump said, the same day he intends to impose reciprocal tariffs on a targeted set of nations.

How Fungible Is Oil?

In the long run, within grade of oil, and ignoring transportation costs, it doesn’t matter much who gets the oil. The net impact on the market is essentially the same.

In the short run, however, it does matter, especially to Canada, who supplies the US with the grade of oil the US needs.

And one cannot ignore transportation costs.

Reflect on Russia Sanctions

Instead of getting oil from Russia via relatively short haul transportation, the EU bought oil from from Mideast supplies like Saudi Arabia.

Russia bought Greek ships and is building pipelines directly to China.

The EU pays more for oil and China gets pipelines in a move that is ultimately counterproductive to the EU and arguably the US.

Sanctions Don’t Work Because They Create New Markets

On September 19, 2023, I commented Lesson of the Day: Sanctions Don’t Work Because They Create New Markets

A person who touted a buyer’s cartel sanction success, now complains the buyers cartel leaks like a sieve.

It is in the best interest of Greek shippers to sell ships so they do. It is in the best interest of India and China to buy Russian oil and Greek ships so they do.

It is in the best interest of Dubai middlemen to make a market in ships so they do.

What this boils down to is simple: It is the best interest of middlemen in Greece, Russia, India, China, and Dubai to tell Biden to go to hell, so they do.

Repeat Lesson on Why Sanctions Fail

On September 26, 2024, I noted To Those Hard of Learning, Here’s a Repeat Lesson on Why Sanctions Fail

Let’s discuss a claim that sanction failures are due to a lack of political will.

So now, Trump wants Venezuela oil. It would reduce the US need for oil from Canada.

But we have direct pipelines from Canada in contrast to Venezuela. And although oil is generally fungible, it may not be so in this case. Where does Canada sell oil if not to the US?

New supply routes would have to be built for Canada exporters.

But that’s OK because once in place, China would be a much more reliable trading partner for Canada than the US under Trump.

Trump Claims “We Have All the Oil We Need”

On February 2, I asked Trump Claims “We Have All the Oil We Need” True or False?

By volume, we are reasonably close. But by grades of oil US refiners need, we aren’t. Here are the details.

Should the US Import Oil from Venezuela Instead of Canada?

On March 22, I asked Should the US Import Oil from Venezuela Instead of Canada?

The answer to this question is seemingly obvious, but ….

But “Trump Considers Extending Chevron License to Pump Oil in Venezuela”

I sarcastically commented “This makes perfect sense because Venezuela is a much better neighbor than Canada.”

The “Beauty” of the Plan

If we let Venezuela supply US oil needs, but nobody else, then we can reduce our trade deficit with Canada.

Of course, our trade deficit would rise with Venezuela.

And we would have to ship the oil here instead of using pipelines already in place in Canada.

Q: Since a total halt of Canadian oil would eliminate the US trade deficit with Canada, could we eliminate tariffs on Canada?
A: Don’t be silly. To do that Canada needs to become the 51st state.

Greenland, of course, will be the 52nd state, and Venezuela the 53rd.

The addition of Canada, Greenland, and Venezuela as states would add six more Progressive Senators to the US, just what Trump wants. Wait, what?

Trump’s Offer to Buy Greenland

On January 8, 2025, I commented Trump’s Offer to Buy Greenland Is Not as Preposterous as it Sounds

Trump says he isn’t bluffing in threats to take over allies. He wants Denmark to sell Greenland and Canada to become the 51’st state.

Trump Postpones “Liberation Day” to Focus on the “Dirty 15”

Earlier today I noted Trump Postpones “Liberation Day” to Focus on the “Dirty 15”

Trump proclaimed April 2 as “Liberation Day” on which he would announce specific tariffs on each of 200 countries.

I had my flags out and firecrackers ready.

And as my lead chart clearly shows, we desperately need liberation from Canada.

I put my flags and firecrackers away, but I am bringing a subset of them back out.

I hope you are with me cheering the demise of Canada and a beautiful friendship with Venezuela starting April 2. In case you missed it, that was sarcasm.

There’s no sarcasm in this sentence: Apologies to Canada.

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