We started off the day with the daily reports starting with MBA Mortgage Market Index (18/Mar), MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (18/Mar), MBA Purchase Index (18/Mar) MBA Mortgage Applications (18/Mar) and MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (18/Mar) at 6:00 A.M., Fed Chair Powell Speech at 7:00 A.M., Bew Home Sales (Feb) and New Home Sales MoM (Feb) at 9:00 A.M., EIA Energy Stocks at 9:30 A.M., 2-Year FRN Auction at 10:30 A.M., Fed Daly Speech at 10:45 A.M., 20-Year Bond Auction at 12:00 P.M., Cold Storage and Dairy Product Sales at 2:00 P.M.

Photo by Waldemar Brandt on Unsplash

The busy hump day begins with headlines and news coming fast and furious like the last few5-weeks of trading, we have hawkish news coming from the Fed, severe storms, and tornados that rocked Texas which moved through all the way to New Orleans. Rescue is in full swing they are not surveying the land but going building to building to see if there are any survivors in the rubble. Also, the Ukraine took some of their real estate back last night and the fighting remains heavy. Whispers that Belarus may join the conflict upping the ante of this war, with Russian forces hungry with little food this could make Putin more of a scared cornered rat. We have to remind him we have rubber bands too.

On the Corn Front we are still bullish even after yesterday’s mixed close. Ukraine Ag minister warned that the Ukraine may only plant 7 million hectares of spring crop versus 15 initially expected. The Russians are pounding buildings and land and were not sure if the Ukraine planting region is the deadlands with the barrage in this brutal war. South America is also have crop problems while inflation rocks the boat and the cost of getting foo to mouth is killing us. In the US this may be an interesting growing year having world shortages and weather concerns here as well. In the overnight electronic session the May corn is currently trading at 756 ½ which is 3 ½ cents higher. The trading range has been 758 ½ to 749.

On the Ethanol Front Brazil eliminates tariffs on ethanol until the end of 2022, they are trying to alleviate inflationary pressures caused by the pandemic and the Russian war with regard of life in the Ukraine. The reduction applies to undenatured ethyl alcohol of alcoholic strength by volume of 80% or more with water content at 1% or less. There were no trades or open interest in ethanol futures.

On the Crude Oil Front two things to learn from, #1 The administration and Go Green globally , by their war on US oil companies which is the cause of inflation, US Foreign Policy and the high paying risky jobs.

#2 You are funding Putin’s War machine. If we only had Anwar, Keystone, Federal Lands and off-shore exploration and energy independence. Kast nights API showed draws in crude -4.280M, Cushing showed builds of +0.646, gasoline and distillates had moderate draws of 0.626M and ).826M We will see if the house rocks further with the AIA data. In the overnight electronic session the May crude oil is currently trading at 11290 which is 360 points higher. The trading range has been 11296 to 10838.

On the Natural Gas Front the market got a surprise boost in shoulder season with the EU saying it will fill its LNG tanks and that would mean more US exports. I think they have come to the realization they sold their soul to the devil with the Nord Stream Pipeline. Also heavy storms in the South has the recovery in motion as there is no time to do a count just save people under the rubble. These factors should support prices when were in the seasonal where prices go down, which is called shoulder season. Might be a change this year where an export market picks up prices before summer. In the overnight electronic session the April natural gas is currently trading at 5.290 which is 0.103 higher. The trading range has been 5.330 to 5.113.