Today, The Focus Of Investors' Attention Is On The PCE Index Data

On Wednesday, the US stock indices ended trading with an increase. The Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 0.09% on Thursday, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.09%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 0.30%. Stocks were supported amid weaker-than-expected US economic reports that lowered bond yields and reinforced speculation that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates this year.

Markets are awaiting Friday's release of PCE deflator data for May, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, to see if price pressures are easing. The year-over-year PCE Index is expected to fall to 2.6% from 2.7%. On a monthly basis, it is expected to rise 0.1%. The latest PCE Index data did not match expectations — US inflation unexpectedly halted in April. Overall, if the PCE Price Index report shows a further decline in inflationary pressures, it could further reinforce expectations of a Fed rate cut (70% as of today). This would likely hurt the US dollar. But suppose the inflation data does not show progress in reducing inflationary pressures. In that case, the likelihood of a rate cut in September would decrease, which would play into the hands of the US dollar and have a negative impact on risk assets and precious metals.

Boeing (BA) is up more than 2% after reporting that China's safety regulator has cleared it to resume deliveries of wide-body airplanes to China.

Bitcoin stabilized above the $61,000 mark on Friday after falling to a near two-month low earlier this week amid renewed inflows into the US spot bitcoin ETFs. Data showed that inflows into the US spot bitcoin ETFs turned positive on June 25 and 26 after seven consecutive days of outflows. US fund assets also increased from $47 billion in early May to more than $52 billion as of June 26.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Thursday. Germany's DAX (DE40) rose by 0.30%, France's CAC 40 (FR40) closed yesterday down 1.03%, Spain's IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.72%, and the UK's FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.55%. The Eurozone Economic Confidence Index for June unexpectedly fell 0.2 to 95.9 versus expectations of a rise to 96.1. Eurozone M3 money supply for May rose 1.6% y/y, exceeding expectations of 1.5% y/y and the largest increase in 14 months. ECB Governing Council spokesman Kazimir said yesterday that he still sees significant upside risks to inflation, and the ECB can expect only one more interest rate cut this year. Swaps discount the odds of an ECB rate cut by 25 bps at 9% for the July 18 meeting and 67% for the September 12 meeting.

The UK economy grew 0.7% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of 2024, slightly above initial estimates of 0.6%. This is the strongest growth in two years, ending the recession that began last year. Services grew by 0.8%, up from 0.7% in the first estimate. The manufacturing sector grew by 0.6%, down from the 0.8% previously reported.

Sweden's Central Bank left interest rates unchanged but changed its estimate for further rate cuts this year to "two or three" from two. Riksbank Governor Erik Thedeen said the inflation outlook had become more positive, especially for inflation expectations and wage growth, but two or three cuts were "an estimate, not a promise." The Riksbank became one of the first major central banks to begin easing monetary policy this cycle in May when it cut rates by 25 basis points.

WTI crude oil prices rose above $82 a barrel on Friday as the escalating conflict in the Middle East overshadowed uncertainty on the demand side. Tensions between Israel and the Lebanese group Hezbollah have escalated after Hezbollah stepped up rocket fire and drone attacks on northern Israel in recent weeks, putting additional pressure on an Israeli government already mired in a war with Hamas. Major oil producer Iran may be drawn into the wider conflict, while Turkish President Erdogan expressed solidarity with Lebanon and called for regional support.

Asian markets were predominantly decreasing yesterday. Japan's Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 0.82%, China's FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 0.32%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng (HK50) was down 2.06%, and Australia's ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.30%.

Japan's Core Consumer Price Index in Tokyo in June 2024 rose by 2.1% year-on-year in June, beating market expectations and the Bank of Japan's 2% target, strengthening the case for the central bank to continue policy normalization. Tokyo's core inflation rate also accelerated for the second consecutive month after rising 1.6% in May. The Bank of Japan has been under sustained pressure to raise interest rates again as rising wages have boosted consumption. The Central Bank is also expected to defend its currency as the yen fell to a 38-year low, pushing up the cost of imports. Tokyo's inflation data is widely seen as a leading indicator of nationwide price trends.

  • S&P 500 (US500) 5,482.87 +4.97 (+0.091%)
  • Dow Jones (US30) 39,164.06 +36.26 (+0.093%)
  • DAX (DE40) 18,210.55 +55.31 (+0.30%)
  • FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,179.68 −45.65 (−0.55%)
  • USD Index 106.05 +0.44 (+0.41%)

Important events today:

  • – Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
  • – UK GDP (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Switzerland KOF Economic Barometer (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+3);
  • – German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
  • – US PCE Price index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada GDP (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
  • – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

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Disclosure: This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, ...

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