We kicked off the day with MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate, MBA Mortgage Applications, MBA Mortgage Market Index, MBA Mortgage Refinance Index, and MBA Purchase Index at 6:00 A.M., ADP Employment Change at 7:15 A.M., Fed Hammack Speech at 8:00 A.M., Fed Musalem Speech at 9:05 A.M., EIA Energy Stocks at 9:30 A.M., fed Bowman Speech at 10:00 A.M., 17-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Fed Barkin Speech at 11:15 A.M., and Dairy Products Sales at 2:00 P.M.

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Purdue University’s monthly Ag Economy Barometer showed a further decline in producer sentiment in September. The Ag Economy Barometer tumbled 12 points from August to 88, the lowest reading since March 2016, and the 2^nd lowest monthly index figure since inception in late 2015. The Current Conditions Index fell 7 points to 76 and was the weakest since April 2020, the depth of the pandemic. The index for Future Expectations marked the largest monthly decline and was sown 14 points at 94, the lowest since March 2016.

Corn Adds Risk Premium; Stone X Hikes Yield Forecast:

CBOT corn futures scored a newer seasonal high, rising in sympathy with crude oil. Modest geopolitical risk premium was added, though analysts cautions against overly bullish due solely to expanding Mideast conflict. Crude’s rally was muted all things considered, and the key is how energy markets perform today. Ag Resources (ARC) notes that too much rain will fall in W Europe,where harvest is already delayed. The Ukrainian cash market remains firm, and it’s this years weak Ukrainian surplus that bodes well for US export disappearance in Dec-Feb period. Stone X hiked it’s US corn yield forecast to 184 BPA, vs. 182.9 previously, which has been validated by early yield results. And the US cash market will be abundantly supplied into 2025. ARC doubts Dec corn can trade much above $4.30 for any length of time until large inventories are worked through and exhausted, and advanced sales this week. Ethanol production margins are in retreat, and larger private crop yield estimates will likely cap Narch corn at $4.50 and above.

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