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At the close of the US stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.23%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.30%. Technology Index Nasdaq (US100) gained 1.01%. Investors are still trying to understand why the Fed keeps raising rates when risks in the financial sector have risen. According to a new batch of published Fed projections, interest rates will peak this year at 5.1%, which implies another rate hike. The Fed Funds rate futures now indicate mixed expectations for the next FOMC meeting on May 3. They imply the likelihood of either a pause in rate hikes or another quarter percentage point increase.

Elon Musk commented on the Federal Reserve's (Fed) statement on the reliability of the US banking industry. Musk assessed the state of the US banking system with the words: "It can't get any worse." Earlier, on March 22, the Fed said that the US banking system is reliable and stable. But the charts show differently. The decline in the US banking sector continues. The KBW Commercial Banks Index and SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF KRE continue to decline for the second straight day. The decline in banks came even after Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Thursday that the government is willing to step in again if necessary to ensure the stability of regional banks.

TikTok and ByteDance could potentially be banned from the United States. TikTok CEO Shaw Zee Chu is on Capitol Hill to testify before Congress as lawmakers mull whether to ban the app amid concerns over the app's data privacy and possible ties to the Chinese Communist Party.

Europe's stock indices traded flat yesterday on Wednesday. German DAX (DE30) decreased by 0.04%. French CAC 40 (FR40) gained 0.11%, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.44%, and British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed yesterday with a 0.89% loss.

Norges Bank raised rates yesterday by 25 basis points to 3.0%. Although domestic inflation is falling faster than previously expected thanks to lower energy prices, the central bank pointed to rising wages and a weak currency as drivers of further price pressures and eventually promised to raise rates again at its next meeting in May. In a new set of economic forecasts, Norges Bank reported at least two more rate hikes before peaking at 3.50% this summer.

The Bank of England raised its interest rate by 25 basis points Thursday to 4.25%, in line with expectations, and said further tightening would be required if there was evidence of more sustained price pressures. According to the Bank of England, fiscal support for the economy will add 0.3% to GDP.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) also raised its discount rate by 50 basis points to 1.5%. The Central Bank seeks to balance its fight against inflation with fears of financial market turmoil. Inflation in Switzerland stands at 3.4%. The SNB also said that the measures announced over the weekend by the authorities against Credit Suisse "stopped the crisis." Together with the Swiss government and financial market regulator FINMA, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) helped organize an emergency takeover of Credit Suisse (CS) by UBS (UBS) on Sunday to prevent the collapse of the country's second-largest bank.

Gold returned to the $2,000 mark on Thursday. Yields on 2-year Treasuries fell again yesterday, indicating the debt market is unsure about the likelihood of another rate hike. Gold has an inverse correlation to government bond yields, so while the dollar index and yields are down, precious metal prices are rising.

Asian markets traded yesterday without a single trend. Japan's Nikkei 225 (JP225) declined 0.17%, China's FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.68%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng (HK50) jumped by 2.34%, India's NIFTY 50 (IND50) fell by 0.44% lower, while Australian S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was 0.67% lower on the day.

In Japan, consumer price inflation slowed in February for the first time in 13 months, mostly due to the government energy subsidy program. Consumer prices fell from 4.3% to 3.3% y/y. Some Bank of Japan policymakers noted the possibility that inflation could exceed initial expectations as price and wage growth showed signs of expansion.

• S&P 500 (F) (US500) 3,948.72 +11.75 (+0.30%)
• Dow Jones (US30)32,105.25 +75.14 (+0.23%)
• DAX (DE40) 15,210.39 −5.80 (−0.038%)
• FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,499.60 −67.24 (−0.89%)
• USD Index 102.54 +0.20 (+0.19%)
   

Important events for today:

• Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2);
• Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2);
• Japan National Core CPI (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2);
• Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
• Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
• German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
• German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
• Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
• Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
• UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
• UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
• Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
• US Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
• US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 15:45 (GMT+2);
• US Services PMI (m/m) at 15:45 (GMT+2).

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