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On Tuesday, the US stock markets showed restrained dynamics and are likely to end the year near recent all-time highs. The Dow Jones (US30) decreased by 0.20%. The S&P 500 (US500) fell by 0.14%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed lower by 0.24%. Investors are balancing expectations of sustainable economic growth and potential further Fed rate cuts on one hand, with persistent concerns regarding the overvaluation of AI-related companies on the other.

The minutes of the December Fed meeting showed that the majority of FOMC representatives allow for further interest rate cuts next year, provided that inflationary pressures gradually ease. However, notable disagreements persist within the committee: some participants fear that high inflation may become entrenched and believe it is necessary to keep borrowing costs elevated, while others advocate for more active policy easing amid signs of a cooling labor market. In December, the Fed lowered the federal funds rate by 25 bps to a range of 3.5-3.75%, marking the third cut of the year and meeting market expectations, although the decision was accompanied by a non-unanimous vote.

European stock markets continued to hit new all-time highs on Tuesday, receiving strong support from the banking and commodity sectors. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 0.57%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed with a gain of 0.69%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) increased by 0.93%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed at positive 0.75%. Investors generally ignored the increased volatility in the precious metals market and renewed uncertainty surrounding peace negotiations for Ukraine, focusing instead on expectations of further Fed policy easing in 2026.

Switzerland’s KOF Economic Barometer rose by 1.7 points to 103.4 in December 2025, reaching its highest value since September 2024 and exceeding market expectations. This indicates an overall improvement in economic prospects, primarily driven by the manufacturing sector.

On Wednesday, silver fell by more than 5% to around $72 per ounce amid year-end profit-taking, sharply retracing from its recent gains. Nevertheless, in 2025, the metal showed outstanding performance, briefly exceeding $80 per ounce due to limited supply and low inventories, and ending the year up approximately 162%, becoming one of the most profitable commodity assets and outperforming most stock indices and currencies. In the longer term, analysts maintain a positive outlook on silver. Interest in metals from both retail and institutional investors remains high, and structural factors, including silver’s strategic importance and limited supply, are capable of offsetting short-term volatility and price corrections.

WTI oil prices traded around $57.9 per barrel on the last trading day of 2025 and are ending the year with the sharpest decline since 2020 amid persistent fears of a global supply glut. Over the year, quotes decreased by almost 20%, and December could be the fifth consecutive month of negative dynamics, reflecting a combination of production growth from OPEC+ countries and non-OPEC producers alongside moderate rates of demand growth.

Asian markets mostly rose yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.37%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.14%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.86%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.13%. Consumer sector stocks in Hong Kong rose, and financial companies showed a moderate climb following the publication of November trade data, which recorded the strongest growth in exports and imports in the last four years, indicating resilient external and internal demand. Additional positive sentiment came from the successful debuts of six Chinese companies on the Hong Kong exchange: most of them began trading above their offering prices, confirming high investor interest and strengthening the city’s status as the region’s key financial hub.

On Wednesday, the offshore yuan strengthened beyond 6.98 per dollar and held near a fifteen-month high following strong data on business activity in China. The Composite PMI rose to 50.7 in December, reaching a six-month peak, while the Manufacturing Index returned to the growth zone for the first time since March, and the Non-Manufacturing Sector Index hit a five-month high. Sentiment was further supported by private survey data, which also pointed to a recovery in industrial activity. As a result, the yuan is moving toward its most significant annual strengthening since 2020.

• S&P 500 (US500) 6,896.24 −9.50 (−0.14%)
• Dow Jones (US30) 48,367.06 −94.87 (−0.20%)
• DAX (DE40) 24,490.41 +139.29 (+0.57%)
• FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,940.71 +74.18 (+0.75%)
• USD Index 98.22 +0.18% (+0.18%)
   

News feed for: 2025.12.31

• China Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+2); – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
• China Non-Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+2); – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
• US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2); – WTI (HIGH)

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