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Below are some of the most interesting things I came across this week.

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“Together, lagged tariff pass‑through, tightening labor supply, looser fiscal policy, and accommodative financial conditions create a macro environment in which inflation rising above 4% by the end of 2026 is not only plausible but arguably the most likely scenario,” argue Peter Orszag and Adam Posen.

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The return of inflationary pressures is something the metals markets are already warning about. “The gap between breakeven inflation and metal prices persists. Will metal prices fall, or will breakeven inflation rise?” asks The Daily Shot.

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At the same time, the stock market is increasingly vulnerable to a bursting asset bubble. As Cory Doctorow writes, “AI is a bubble and it will burst. Most of the companies will fail. Most of the datacenters will be shuttered or sold for parts… As Stein’s law has it: ‘Anything that can’t go on forever eventually stops.'”

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As such, “It’s the perfect environment for commodities to forge a generational outperformance over financial assets. Hard assets climb in real terms, while stocks and bonds, denominated in increasingly debauched, unbacked currencies, fall further behind,” writes Simon White.

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With metals already discounting these dynamics to some degree, the real opportunity today may be in commodities that have yet to do so. “We may be living in a ‘just in case’ world but most traders still have a ‘just in time’ view on oil, and they seem to assume there is no trouble on the horizon,” writes Rana Foroohar.

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