Photo by Avinash Kumar on Unsplash
 

The US stocks are starting the week in the green. By the end of Monday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.47%. The S&P500 Index (US500) gained 0.64%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Index (US100) closed higher by 0.52%. Tech stocks led the way thanks to news that Nvidia (+1.5%) plans to begin shipping H200 AI chips to China by mid-February. Oracle added 3.2%, and Micron Technology rose by 4%. The energy sector also grew, with ExxonMobil and Chevron adding 1.3% and 1.4%, amid strengthening oil prices driven by supply concerns related to US actions toward Venezuela. Trading was quiet ahead of Christmas, with investor attention focused on the delayed US GDP data to be released today. If the actual GDP exceeds expectations, it will be interpreted as a signal of sustainable economic growth and could strengthen the dollar, support the stock market, and reduce pressure on the Fed to cut rates.

The Mexican peso (MXN) strengthened above 18 per dollar, reaching its highest level since July 2024, thanks to strong domestic activity, high yields, and a decline in dollar demand. The Bank of Mexico lowered its rate to 7% last week but is ready to pause cuts as it waits for inflation to decrease toward 3%. High real rates are attracting foreign investment. The weakening of the dollar amid expectations of Fed rate cuts and a cooling US economy also supported the peso’s growth.

Stock markets in Europe were mostly down yesterday. The German DAX (DE40) edged down 0.02%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed lower by 0.37%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.07%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed at negative 0.32%. European stock markets maintain the cautious mood seen in previous sessions amid limited market drivers due to the approaching holidays. Investors are assessing the ongoing debate over tech sector valuations amid rising geopolitical risks. Russia and Ukraine continued to intensify attacks against each other, a day after the Kremlin stated that weekend peace talks had not led to a breakthrough. Regarding data, car registrations in the EU rose by 2.1% year-on-year in November after a 5.8% increase in October.

WTI oil prices traded around $57.9 per barrel on Tuesday, continuing to rise after four sessions amid increased geopolitical risks. The US is actively pursuing another Venezuelan oil tanker and two recently seized vessels, which is putting pressure on supplies. Although Venezuelan oil accounts for less than 1% of the global market, it is important for the Maduro government’s revenue. In Europe, Ukraine continues strikes on Russian energy infrastructure in the Black Sea, damaging two vessels and piers, which also supports prices. However, despite these factors, oil remains on track for an annual decline due to expectations of a market supply surplus.

Silver (XAG) reached a record $69.5 per ounce on Tuesday amid rising geopolitical tensions, which strengthened its status as a safe-haven asset. The growth is supported by high demand and shrinking inventories; the metal has increased in price by more than 140% since the beginning of the year. Traders expect two Fed rate cuts next year, and Fed member Christopher Waller noted the possibility of further policy easing.

Asian markets traded mostly up yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.81%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) increased by 0.75%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.43%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.34% yesterday. Mainland China markets extended a five-session winning streak, reaching a four-week high amid renewed optimism regarding AI trade. Local tech companies were the growth leaders, echoing the overnight gains on Wall Street. The market was supported by news of Nvidia’s plans to start shipping its second most powerful AI chips to China by mid-February. Investors are closely monitoring the meeting of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress for signals of additional policy support.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes showed a decline in confidence that policy is sufficiently restrictive due to the risk of persistent inflation. The possibility of rate hikes in 2026 is being discussed if inflation risks are confirmed, with decisions depending on incoming data. Markets are already pricing in a hike in the first half of 2026 and a potential additional one by the end of the year. Large banks expect an earlier tightening due to high demand, a tight labor market, and weak productivity. The yield on Australian 10-year bonds could rise by 9% in 2025.

• S&P 500 (US500) 6,878.49 +43.99 (+0.64%)
• Dow Jones (US30) 48,362.68 +227.79 (+0.47%)
• DAX (DE40) 24,283.97 −4.43 (−0.02%)
• FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,865.97 −31.45 (−0.32%)
• USD Index 98.27 −0.33% (−0.33%)
   

News feed for: 2025.12.23

• Australia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 02:30 (GMT+2); – AUD (LOW)
• Singapore Inflation Rate (m/m) at 07:30 (GMT+2); – SGD (MED)
• US Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
• US GDP (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
• Canada GDP (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – CAD (MED)
• US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+2); – USD (LOW)
• US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2). – USD (MED)

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