Today was one of those days where, if you weren’t paying close attention, it didn’t seem like you missed much. S&P 500 futures gapped higher last night, and that was essentially it—they traded sideways for the rest of the session. Maybe it was a reaction to lower oil prices, but it felt like another one of those mysterious futures rallies that don’t always make sense.
Despite the quiet day on the surface, the breadth in the Bloomberg 500 was fairly positive, with more than 350 stocks moving higher and about 150 declining.
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It was the same story in the Nasdaq, except that the Nasdaq futures saw a much bigger rally, nearly all of which were given back by the end of the session.
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So far, the technical patterns for S&P 500 futures haven’t changed; they continue moving sideways over time, shifting from one side of the rising wedge to the other.
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Oil dropped sharply today as Middle East tensions appear to be settling, at least for now. The biggest question for oil is whether it will break the support level around $66, and if it does, it could drop into the mid-50s. We’re seeing oil prices falling while rates are rising, which seem to be at odds with each other.
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In some ways, falling oil prices align perfectly with a stronger dollar, and perhaps we’re seeing a return to the market’s natural order. Historically, a stronger dollar has pushed oil prices lower. It may be that the market no longer views oil like it did when the inflation was high, with the stronger dollar now driving oil prices rather than oil driving rates and, as a result, the dollar.
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Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment ...
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Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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