The Energy Report: Ceasefired Up

Oil prices retreated yesterday along with a big sell off in the stock market as concerns about inflation and rising interest rates put it damper on most of the markets. Today, believe it or not, the market is getting some pressure from a Reuters report that Vladimir Putin is looking for a ceasefire in Ukraine. According to a Reuters report Russian President Vladimir Putin is ready to halt the war in Ukraine with a negotiated ceasefire that recognizes the current battlefield lines.

At the same time, he is saying he is prepared to fight if Kiev in the West does not respond.

The interesting thing here is that when you look at the war in Ukraine the Biden administration has a lot invested in this War. Early in the war the Biden Administration advised Ukraine not to agree to a ceasefire deal with Russia.

President Biden seemed to welcome the “minor incursion” into Ukraine by Russia and then later backed off that statement, yet it seemed almost to welcome the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

Now he has the military industrial complex humming with massive amounts of American Taxpayer money flowing to Ukraine.  Because of that ignominious start to the war, it would be interesting to see if the Biden administration would be open to the olive branch that the Russian President is offering.

Many members of the Biden administration of course have demonized Russian President Vladimir Putin even before the Russian Ukraine war, rightly or wrongly. Many members of Biden administration helped perpetuate the myth that the Trump administration had in some way colluded with Putin and Russia to discredit the sitting president of the United States.

We know that the Russian investigation into the Trump campaign was started by the Hillary Clinton campaign with a fake dossier.

We know now that the FBI that broke the law in securing FISA warrants against American citizens.

This was a very dark time in American history where the rule of law became a joke as corrupt players in the FBI and the CIA decided to take it upon themselves to try to unseat sitting U.S. President.  They spat on the constitution and bright shame on themselves and the institutions that they were supposed to serve.

I’s clear that the Biden administration has a lot invested in the war in Ukraine.  Not only did his son Hunter have business dealings in Ukraine, working for the natural gas company Burisma Holdings. Then Vice President leveraged $1 billion in aid to persuade Ukraine to fire its top prosecutor, Viktor Shokin, in March 2016.” In 2012, the Ukrainian prosecutor general Viktor Pshonka began investigating Ukrainian oligarch Mykola Zlochevsky, owner of the natural gas company Burisma Holdings, over allegations of money laundering, tax evasion, and corruption during 2010–2012. In 2015, Shokin became the prosecutor general, inheriting the investigation. Then will Hunter Biden was getting paid the Vice President got Ukraine to fire Ponoka.

Biden administration is also used the war in Ukraine as an excuse for increasing inflation and rising oil and gas prices. This has been a convenient excuse, almost as convenient as being able to use US taxpayers’ dollars to influence a country to fire a prosecutor investigating the company that you’re Son is getting paid by.

From a technical point the market just doesn’t seem to have a lot downside but the negativity about demand expectations and the course of interest rates is keeping the market in a range.

AAA  says that  “The national average for a gallon of gasoline wobbled slightly since last Thursday before settling one cent higher at $3.61

“The lack of pump price movement is typical in the days leading up to Memorial Day.  However, with AAA forecasting a record 38.4 million drivers hitting the road for the long weekend, the price needle could point a bit higher, at least temporarily. “

Yet Trilby Lundburg on the Lundberg Survey the granddaddy of all gasoline  price reporting and the inventor of that industry questioning that prediction.  Berg better preceded AAA’s price reporting on gasoline and even did it before the US government started to cover it.

Lundgurg writes that  “AAA’s holiday car travel projections have been high versus actual gasoline demand by a factor of ten on average according to our study. The AAA forecasts are widely reported by media as gospel without anyone asking about the historic track record. This report examines 14 years of AAA forecasts versus gasoline demand and finds some shocking results. Lundberg writes that “the AAA press release states quote we haven’t seen Memorial Day weekend travel numbers like these in almost 20 years” said Paula Twidale, senior vice president of a travel. “We are projecting an additional 1,000,000 travelers this holiday weekend compared to 2019 which not only means were exceeding pre pandemic levels but also signals a very busy summer travel season ahead.”

What’s more AAA says Rd. travel will hit a new record high: “road trips are expected to set a record AAAA projects 38.4 million people will travel by car over the Memorial Day weekend the highest number for that holiday since AAA began tracking this in the year 2000.

Lundberg did an extensive study of a AAA holiday predictions over the years concluded that they have really been overestimating these travel numbers for a while.

She did a comparison to the Energy Information Administration (EIA) data and saw some differences.

She says because of that a forecast of four-point a 4.1% increase in driving this Memorial Day season is somewhat questionable. She questions why AAA would expect a big surge in gasoline demand when we have seen evidence that so far drivers have been cutting back on consumption in 2024.

Why suddenly when they jump into their cars and start spending money when they’re being impacted by high inflation.

And while the Energy Information Administration did report a big surge in gasoline demand from the week before we have seen some very erratic data as far as gasoline from week to week as far as demand numbers are concerned.

Yet regardless of who’s right and who’s wrong the main thing to do is stop and take some time this holiday weekend to remember those that gave all for America and our freedoms.  so many good men and women sacrificed so much so that we could have a country and they deserve our gratitude and prayers.  God Bless them and God Bless their Families and God please bless America.

Scott DiSavino at Reuters wrote that Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to an average of 97.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in May, down from 98.2 bcfd in April. That compares with a monthly record of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023.

On a daily basis, however, output was up about 1.5 bcfd since hitting a 15-week low of 96.2 bcfd on May 1. Energy traders said that increase was a sign that the 63% gain in futures prices over the past three weeks prompted some drillers to start producing more gas.

More By This Author:

The Energy Report: Empty The Tank.
The Energy Report: Price Matters
The Energy Report: Play It
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