We kicked off the day with Fed Goolsbee Speech at 7:20 A.M., Durable Goods Orders MoM, Export Sales, GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final, Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation MoM, GDP Price Index QoQ Final, Goods Trade Balance Adv, Initial Jobless Claims, Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Adv, Wholesale Inventories MoM Adv, Continuing Jobless Claims, Core PCE Prices QoQ Final, Corporate Profits QoQ Final, Durable Goods Orders ex Defense MoM, GDP Sales QoQ Final, Jobless Claims 4-week Average, Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air, PCE Prices QoQ Final, and Real Consumer Spending QoQ Final at 7:30 A.M., Fed Williams Speech at 8:00 A.M., Existing Home Sales, Existing Home Sales MoM, and Fed Bowman Speech at 9:00 A.M., EIA Natural Gas Storage at 9:30 A.M., Kansas Fed Composite Index and Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index at 10:00 A.M., 4-Week & 8-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 15-Year & 30-Year Mortgage Rate at 11:00 A.M., Fed Barr Speech and 7-Year Note Auction at 12:00 P.M., Hogs & Pigs at 2:00 P.M., Fed Daly Speech at 2:30 P.M., Fed Balance Sheet at 3:30 P.M., and UN General Assembly.

The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly report showed that the average fixed rate 30-yaer mortgage interest rate declined for the 4^th consecutive eel to 6.35%. This was the lowest weekly average since September 2024. The effect on mortgage demand has been significant. The Mortgage Application Index has marked strong gains in September and was 388.3 this week, a 31% increase over last year and the highest since April 2022. Additionally, the Mortgage Refinance Index was 42% higher than last year and the highest sionce March 2022. The Home Purchase Index for the week was 18% higher than a year ago, The highest since July, and the highest since April 2023. Additionally, the Census Bureau reported that new home sales in August were up 21% from July and 15% higher than a year ago at a 43-month high, as mortgage rates slipped below 6.7 in August. The credit markets are pricing in additional rate cuts in 2025, which should unlock the real estate market.

Photo by Waldemar on Unsplash

Central US Weather Pattern Update

Central US Warmth/Dryness Extended into Oct 9^th:

US weather will be rather favorable for speedy harvesting, while abundant soil moisture across the Plains support HRW germination & early growth. Current soil moisture anomalies, are deeply positive anomalies currently in place across KS, SD and parts of NE. Autumn winter wheat issues will be confined to IL, IN and OH. Additional rainfall of .50-1.00” impacts TN, KY and far Southeast over the next 24 hours. A pattern of widespread dryness and abnormal warmth the blankets the whole Midwest. Into the first full week of October. Highs will be routinely in the 70’s/low 80’s over the next 10 days. Overnight lows in the Dakotas, MN, and WI stay above 50 degrees.

Corn Comments & Analysis

CBOT Corn in Narrow Range; Ethanol Stocks Swell in Mid-September:

Corn ended weaker as Argentine producers & exporters rush to sell cash corn and especially soybeans ahead of the current tax holiday. The Us’s planned credit line of $20 Bil offered to the Argentine government will returns Argentine grain export taxes in October. Argentina has some 13-14 MMT’s corn left to ship prior to spring 2026. Competition for world trade be hefty. US weekly export sales of 45 Mil Bu plus should help validate USDA’s annual forecast. US ethanol stocks on September 19^th totaled 985 Mil Gal, up 36 Mil on the previous week. Current inventories cover nearly 4-weeks of consumption, which is large for early autumn. There’s less a burden place upon future weekly corn grind. Sorghum inclusion in the future ethanol grind will be maximized. Bullish sentiment centers on US corn yield uncertainty and the possibility NASS in October trims its forecast by 2-4 BPA. Such a US yield loss isn’t enough to sustain Dec above $4.30. A dire South American drought is needed to sustain a US corn recovery once the US 2025corn harvest sis stored. The sheer size of US corn supplies looks to pressure spot corn futures to $3.95-$4.05. US 2025/26 corn supplies are abundant/ample.

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