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In a recent video discussion, Serge Berger—founder of The Steady Trader and a trader with more than 26 years of experience at institutions such as JP Morgan and hedge funds—shared his perspective on today’s markets. The conversation explored volatility, the concentration of the S&P 500, and the importance of distinguishing between momentum and long-term trends.

Video Length: 00:21:40

Key Insights from the Conversation

Volatility in Seasonal Context

Berger explained that September and October have historically been more volatile months for U.S. equities. While seasonality doesn’t guarantee outcomes, being aware of these patterns can help traders and investors better prepare for potential swings and avoid becoming overextended during turbulent periods.

The Question of S&P 500 Concentration

Technology stocks now account for more than 40% of the S&P 500, with Nvidia exerting outsized influence. Berger pointed out that this level of concentration creates risk management challenges, since market moves in a single sector can disproportionately affect the index as a whole. Diversification, therefore, becomes even more critical.

Beyond U.S. Equities: 2025 Performance Standouts

Berger highlighted that some of the strongest returns this year have come from outside U.S. equities. Gold miners have risen about 80% year-to-date, uranium 50%, platinum 47%, and silver has also gained. Even Germany’s DAX index has advanced 33%. These examples illustrate the importance of looking beyond traditional benchmarks when assessing opportunities.

Momentum vs. Trends

A key theme Berger stressed is the difference between short-lived momentum and enduring trends. Momentum can spark sharp price moves, but these often fade quickly. Trends, on the other hand, unfold more gradually and can last longer, requiring patience. Confusing the two can lead to misplaced expectations and poorly timed trades.

Managing Risk with Discipline

Berger emphasized risk management as the foundation of sustainable trading. Strategies such as partial profit-taking, stop losses, and consistently applying repeatable rules help traders reduce downside exposure. His approach underscores the need to balance opportunity with discipline.

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