The dollar remained steady and was set to break a two-week losing streak on Friday, driven by US labor and manufacturing data. Jobless claims rose more than expected last week, but the labor market remained stable. The dollar index stood at 104.36, up from a four-month low of 103.64. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates unchanged in its upcoming July meeting, with a 25 basis point cut anticipated for September. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly emphasized the need for more confidence in achieving the Fed’s 2% inflation target before considering a rate cut.
 

Nasdaq

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NASUSD (Daily). With a week dominated by long bearish bars, buyers’ appetite is waning. The price broke the bullish projection line on the last trading day and looks ready to break the nearest support at 19,500. If the 19,500 fails to hold, we expect the Nasdaq to head to the next demand level, the 50% Fibonacci level at 18,880.
 

WTI

US oil futures briefly held gains after a 2.6% jump, with crude inventories falling for the third consecutive week. Despite a 4.9 million barrel drop in crude inventory, gasoline stocks rose by 3.3 million barrels. Factors like falling inventories, Middle Eastern tensions, seasonal demand, and lower interest rate expectations have pushed oil prices up since early June. However, market volatility will persist due to hurricanes, Middle Eastern uncertainty, Chinese policy and OPEC statements.

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WTIUSD (Daily). A two-week correction and closed by a strong bearish bar, WTI is approaching the 50% level between 72.40 and 84.00. Given the current hurricane season which could disrupt production, continued output cuts from OPEC and uncertainty in the Middle East, we are looking to long WTI.  Our buying zone is between $72 and $78 a barrel.
 

Gold

Gold prices fell over 2% on Friday due to the rising dollar and profit-taking after reaching a record high driven by expectations of a US interest rate cut in September. The dollar rose 0.2%, and 10-year Treasury yields increased, adding pressure on gold. Chris Mancini of the Gabelli Gold Fund suggested that if ETFs add gold as rates decline, prices could rise significantly. Economic stimulus for infrastructure could also boost gold and industrial metals.

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XAUUSD (H4). After soaring above 2,400, Gold closed the week at 2,400. We expect the price to bounce from the support around 2390.
 

Euro

The euro fell on Thursday after the European Central Bank (ECB) held rates steady as expected. The ECB cited high domestic price pressures and persistent inflation above target, with President Christine Lagarde providing no clear guidance on future moves. The ECB will take a cautious approach, letting data dictate its decisions. The euro remained steady around $1.0880 after a 0.4% drop from the four-month high of $1.0947.

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EURUSD (Daily). EURUSD is forming a symmetrical-triangle pattern. The euro weakened after the ECB announcement. Although the ECB and Fed are looking to cut rates, any positive sentiments from the US election may boost the dollar. We are bearish on the EURUSD with a profit target of around 1.0690.

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