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US futures                                         

Dow futures 0.17%, S&P futures 0.43%  & Nasdaq futures 0.77%

In Europe                                                                        

FTSE 0.07% & DAX 1%

• Stocks rise, adding to last week’s gains
• The US ISM manufacturing PMI is expected to
• Palantir to report after the close
• Oil steadied after OPEC+ raised output, but will pause next year
   

Stocks rise with earnings & ISM manufacturing data due

US stocks are heading higher, having to last week's gains, boosted by AI optimism and the US-China trade truce.

S&P 500 posted its sixth straight monthly gain in October, its longest rally in four years, whilst the tech-heavy NASDAQ posted its longest winning streak since January 2, 1018, after five magnificent seven companies posted earnings, pointing to a surge in AI spending.

Semiconductor firms, including AMD and Qualcomm, are due to report this week and could provide more clues on AI demand.

In addition to earnings, the mood is upbeat after Trump and China’s President Xi agreed last week to de-escalate trade tensions, including a one-year delay in reciprocal tariffs. However, the meeting fell well short of an all-encompassing trade deal.

Attention this week will be on private-sector data, including ISM manufacturing PMIs today and Wednesday's ADP private payrolls data, for further clues on the health of the jobs market after the Fed cut rates last week, but warned the market not to get carried away with a December rate cut.

The market is pricing in a 69% chance for a 25 basis point rate reduction in December, down from 90% priced in ahead of last week's Fed meeting.

US manufacturing ISM PMI is expected to rise to 49.5, up from 49.1 in September.
 

Corporate news 

Palantir is rising pre-market up 2% as investors look ahead to the data analytics giant's earnings release after the closing bell. The company lifted its full-year revenue forecast in August for a second time in 2025 amid strong demand for its AI-linked services from businesses and government.

Nvidia is rising 1.7% despite Trump saying in an interview that cutting-edge chips from the AI giant will be available only to U.S. companies, not to businesses in China.

Berkshire Hathaway is rising 1.3% after Warren Buffett's conglomerate posted strong Q3 results with its cash power climbing to a record $381.7 billion, up from $277 billion a year earlier.
 

S&P500 forecast – technical analysis

The S&P500 trades within a rising channel, hitting a record high of 6920 last week, the upper band of the rising channel, before easing lower to 6865 at the time of writing. The RSI bearish divergence is a reason for caution. Buyers will look to rise above 6920 to fresh record highs towards 6950 and 7000. Support is seen at 6750, the early October high. Below 6650, the 50 SMA and the channel's lower band come into focus. A break below 6500 creates a lower low.
 

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FX markets – USD rises, GBP/USD falls

The U.S. dollar is rising, adding to last week’s gains and hitting a 3-month high amid reduced expectations of a Fed rate cut. Markets have lowered rate cut bets following Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish tone last week.

EUR/USD is falling amid a stronger USD, despite the Eurozone PMI manufacturing reaching 50 in October —the level that separates expansion from contraction. This was up from 49.8 in September but still shows a stagnant sector at best.

GBP/USD is falling towards 1.31, a multi-month low, and is also falling against the EUR as attention turns to the BoE rate decision this week. UK factories had the strongest month in a year in October, with the PMI rising to 49.7. However, this failed to lift GBP.
 

Oil unchanged after OPEC+ lifts output

Oil prices were little changed despite OPEC class announcing plans to end its supply increases. At the weekend, OPEC+ increased output by 137,000 barrels per day in December and said it will pause increases in the first quarter of next year, amid concerns over a supply glut.

There is still plenty of uncertainty over how large the surplus next year will be. This could depend on how disruptive U.S. sanctions are to Russian oil flows—estimates of the surplus range from 190k to 3 million bpd.

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