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Chinese import restrictions from US President Donald Trump’s trade war with China have reverberated through markets for global agricultural commodities, with Argentina as the trade war’s both beneficiary and victim.

Exports of raw soybeans to China reached a six-year high last month, but they are arriving at a time when Argentina’s powerful soy crushing industry lacks supplies.

The paradox is clear: strong exports abroad have long robbed domestic processors of the beans they crush into meal and oil, Argentina’s most prized agricultural exports.

According to the CIARA-CEC grain exporters and processors chamber, idle capacity at the national crushing plants was already at 31% in July and has since increased.

“As an oilseed industry, we are concerned. “This means fewer jobs in Argentina and lower export value,” said Gustavo Idigoras, head of CIARA-CEC. “This trade war has not brought benefits to Argentina; it has brought harm.”

China’s appetite for raw beans

China, the world’s top soybean buyer, has shifted demand away from the United States and toward South America as a result of tariffs and trade restrictions. Argentina, like Brazil, has been a key supplier.

According to official figures, exports of unprocessed soybeans from the 2024/25 crop totalled 8.81 million metric tons, nearly double the 4.7 million tons exported last season.

The spike underscores China’s preference for importing raw beans to process in its own industrial complexes over purchasing higher-value products from Argentina.

“This export boom is being fueled by new demand from China that stems directly from its trade war with the United States,” Idigoras told a news conference.

U.S. soy surplus adds pressure

While Argentine exporters are experiencing record demand for raw beans, processors face fierce competition in their usual markets.

The trade battle has resulted in a soybean surplus in the United States, allowing US soymeal to compete aggressively with Argentina’s shipments to Southeast Asia.

This dynamic has weakened Argentina’s position as the world’s leading soymeal exporter, reducing the value of its crushing sector.

Idigoras cautioned that the implications are already obvious, including less industrial activity, fewer jobs, and lower export earnings from value-added items.

Uncertain outlook

The geopolitical confrontation between Washington and Beijing will determine Argentina’s soybean export trajectory.

With roughly a third of the 2024/25 harvest still unsold, exporters are on course to keep their scorching pace.

However, the long-term picture is far from certain.

“The future of our bean exports will be decided by what happens between China and the United States,” Idigoras said. “All eyes are on November, when the current trade waiver between them expires.”

Until then, Argentina is trapped between opportunity and risk. Rising raw soybean shipments provide a short-term windfall, but the hollowing out of the crushing business calls into doubt the long-term viability of this boom.

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