Soybean Elliott Wave Analysis

The soybean market is currently retracing within a long-term corrective structure that has developed since the peak in June 2022. While short-term upside potential appears likely, the overarching trend suggests that a significant sell-off is poised to resume, potentially driving prices toward the lows seen in 2020.

Long-Term Perspective

Before the decline that began in June 2022, soybeans experienced a robust bullish impulse wave starting in May 2019, which propelled prices from approximately $806 to significant highs. However, over the past 26 months, the market has surrendered more than two-thirds of those gains. From an Elliott Wave standpoint, the current corrective phase is forming a three-swing pattern, a typical structure within corrective waves that indicates a complex retracement.

Daily Chart Analysis

On the daily chart, we observe this corrective structure unfolding at the primary wave degree. Wave A reached its conclusion at $1,249 in October 2023, followed by Wave B, which peaked at $1,398 in November 2023. Presently, we are witnessing the formation of Wave C to the downside. Within this unfolding Wave C, sub-waves (1), (2), and (2) of 5 have already been completed. The market is now experiencing a retracement in Wave (4), currently trading above the significant level of $1,000. A key question arises: how high can this Wave (4) rally extend?

(Click on image to enlarge)

H4 Chart Analysis

Zooming into the H4 chart, we find that Wave (4) has completed its first sub-wave, denoted as Wave A. The bullish reaction observed since September 11, 2024, suggests that Wave B may have concluded. For confirmation that Wave B has indeed ended and that we are transitioning into Wave C, the price must break above the high of Wave A. Should this scenario play out, we could expect Wave C to advance toward the $1,070 level. Alternatively, if the price fails to surpass the high of Wave A, it may indicate that Wave B is set to make another minor leg down, dipping slightly below $1,000 before establishing a solid support base to initiate Wave C.

(Click on image to enlarge)

More By This Author:

GBPUSD Forex Elliott Wave Technical Analysis - Friday, September 20
Unlocking ASX Trading Success: BLOCK INC. Stock Analysis & Elliott Wave Technical Forecast - Friday, September 20
Elliott Wave Technical Analysis: Uniswap Crypto Price News For Friday, Sept 20