We kicked off the day with MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate, MBA Mortgage Applications, MBA Mortgage Market Index, MBA Mortgage Refinance Index, and MBA Purchase Index at 6:00 A.M., Real Earnings, Core Inflation Rate MoM & YoY, Inflation Rate MoM & YoY, CPI, and CPI s.a. at 7:30 A.M., Fed Chair Powell Testimony at 9:00 A.M., EIA Energy Stocks at 9:30 A.M., 17-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Fed Bostic Speech at 11:00 A.M., 10-Year Note Auction at 12:00 P.M., Monthly Budget Statement at 1:00 P.M., Dairy Products Sales at 2:00 P.M., Fed Waller Speech at 4:05 P.M.

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The National Federation of Independent Business’s monthly survey of small businesses showed a slight downtick in owner optimism in January, but overall enthusiasm remained far above a ear ago. The Small Business Optimism Index was at 102.8 down 2.3 points from December’s 6-year high of 105.1, but was still 12.9 points (14%) higher than a year ago. The NFIB survey showed that small business owners remain optimistic about future business conditions. However, highering challenges continue to frustrate owners. The NFIB survey followed the Real Clear Markets/TIPP Economic Optimism Survey kast week, which showed a slight uptick in consumer optimism in February. The Index rose from 52 in January to 53 in February, supported by confidence in Federal Economic Policies, and  government economic policies.

Ag Resources Analysis of USDA’s Feb WASDE:

WASDE corn data leaned neutral, but the market reacted negatively as the USDA’s tightening of US and exporter corn supply & demand paused. Combined production in Argentina & Brazil was lowered 2MMT’s. This was offset by lower projected import demand, with 24/25 Chinese imports trimmed another 3 MMT’s to 10 MMT’s (vs. 23.4 MMT’s a year ago). Exporter corn stocks /use was left unchanged at 7.5%. This is still historically tight and leaves little room for error via adverse weather in Mar-Apr or via a final Argentine crop below 50 MMT’s. It remains that tariffs and S American weather drive values over the next 30 days, but ARC’s research doubts exporter corn stocks/use can be adjusted meaningfully. Favorable S Am weather and the implementation of tariffs on Mexico & China force CBOT corn to test $4.50-$4.60. Brazilian weather adversity keeps the market bound to a range of $4.80-$5.10. Be prepared for choppiness. Spreads widened yesterday after the 3^rd day of the Goldman roll.Speculative traders pared back on recently added long positions.

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