We kicked off the day with S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final at 8:45 A.M., ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing Employment, Construction Spending MoM, ISM Manufacturing New Orders, and ISM Manufacturing Prices at 9:00 A.M., Export Inspections at 10:00 A.M., 3-Month & 6-Month Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Cotton System, Fats & Oils, and Grain Crushings at 2:00 P.M., and Crop Progress at 3:00 P.M.

Photo by Jesse Gardner on Unsplash

The Commitment of Traders report affirmed another big week of selling in the ag markets. I also believe Friday’s report did not systemize the damage of recent weather, whether drought, flooding and heavy rain & high winds. I expect a reality check in the next upcoming reports. This report is not one to take for granted, For the week ending June 25, funds were net sellers in every ag market except live cattle, where they bought 4,100 contracts. Funds sols 86, contracts in corn, 24,000 in soybeans, and 36,000 contracts of wheat on all 3 wheat exchanges. Funds also sold 12,000 in soybean meal, and nearly 24,000 in soybean oil, close to 9,000 contracts in lean hogs, and 500 in feeder cattle. Across the 10 principle ag markets, funds sold 187,000 contracts during the week to take the net short position near 501,000 contracts. Ag Resources (ARC) estimates today’s funds short position is closed to 580-600,000 contracts. And if our crazy weather pattern continues into July both in the US and abroad, in this forecasted heavily active hurricane season. Weather may start short-covering, and by the time the horse left the barn it will be too late to say, “Katy Bar the Door!” The June Acreage and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports offered sharply mixed results. The big surprise was 1.4 Mil/Acre and increase in corn from the March Prospective Plantings report and a 410,000 acre decline in soybean acres. ( The street was thinking the opposite). There was a slight decline in additional minor feed grain acres and fewer minor oilseed acres. Corn and Soybean Stocks were both within the range of pre-report estimates. Ultimately, it was the average that directed price trends during the day. The soybean average figure was below expectations and supported soybean futures prices ate the end of the week, while larger-than-expected corn acreage number sent corn futures sharply lower. Amid the mixed report results, more drama was added as the USDA’s websites crashed at the reports release, delaying the Grain Stocks foe more than 10 minutes and the Acreage delay nearly 20 minutes.The CBOT futures are mixed as world traders were able to react to Friday’s NASS June Stocks/Seedings report. Initial selling pressure was evident and was felt on Sunday’s opening, but short covering and end user pricing allowed for an overbought bounce in soybeans and wheat. Corn futures are slightly lower on spreading.

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