It is Sunday night  on the East Coast of America and most people including me are currently snowed in by what they are calling one of the biggest storms in years. As I look out at the whiteout, I can’t help but see the perfect metaphor for the silver market. For years, the banking establishment has maintained a "smokescreen" of paper contracts to hide a simple truth: the world is running out of physical silver.

But the wind has shifted. On January 1, I predicted that the New York paper market would divorce from reality. Today, that divorce is the most famous, and expensive, legal separation in financial history. While the banks were screaming that silver was a "bubble" above $70, it is currently holding firm above $100 an ounce.
 

The Viral Math: From Industrial Metal to Survival Asset

For the last 15 years, I have spoken at family office events globally. I can tell you firsthand: gold and silver were rarely on the agenda. Wealth managers viewed silver as a "boring industrial metal."

That ended this month. Silver is going viral.

The global family office network manages well over  $16 trillion in assets. (And that's just the billionaires recognized by Forbes and not the hidden billionaires or centi billionaires.)  Historically, their silver allocation has been effectively 0%. If these offices move just 1% of their wealth into silver to hedge against a weaponized and falling Dollar, inflation or rising global debts they would be collectively hunting for the fluctuating $100 to $150 billion worth of metal. (A mixture of new supply, old supply and ETFs.) The family offices of the future will be those who had the right mix of commodities/hard assets in their portfolios when the biggest debt bubble in the history of the world started to deflate.

Here is the problem: the entire annual supply of investment-grade silver bars is only about $25 billion. You cannot fit a $160 billion "viral" trade through a $25 billion straw. This is why I noted on January 12 that "the banks are trapped in a mean-reversion move that has no basis in physical reality." 
 

The BRICS Strategic Vault Shift

It isn't just family offices. The Landlords of the East have stopped selling.

• Russia: The Russian Finance Ministry recently announced a pilot project through December 2026 to bring precious metals into state circulation, allocating billions of rubles to buy up silver, gold, and palladium. Source: Kremlin.ru
• China: As of January 1, Beijing implemented an export licensing regime that effectively weaponized their silver supply. Only 44 state-approved companies can now export. Source: Kotak Institutional

When Russia and China decide to hoard a metal, it is no longer a "commodity." It is a Strategic Survival Asset.
 

The Bank "Ghost Stories" vs. Reality

Let’s look at the receipts. In early January, the "experts" were desperate to keep the lid on:

• HSBC predicted that the silver rally was "fundamentally overvalued" and forecasted a retreat to $68. Source: Forex.com
• UBS labeled the move a "speculative frenzy" as it cleared $80. [Source: Business Times]

In my January 8 article, I called these warnings what they really were: "A smokescreen to cover major shortages in the physical market." I predicted then that silver was headed to $100 "quickly." It took less than 20 days.
 

The Hunt Brothers 2.0 (The Infinite Squeeze)

In 1980, the Hunt Brothers took silver to $50. But they were individuals who could be broken by rule changes. Today’s Hunts are nation-states (BRICS) and AI tech giants (who need silver for chips and power). You can't change the rules on a sovereign nation or a trillion-dollar tech company.

Total market value of all above ground investable silver is approximately  4 to 6 $ trillion  at today's prices. Much smaller than equity or bonds. Total annual supply including recycled silver and global mine production is app 1,000 million ounces.

• Of this 55 to 60 % is used for industrial (solar, medical, electronics etc.) and 18 to 20 % goes to jewelry, 18 to 20 percent is left for bars, coins and ETFs- this fluctuates of course and old metal comes on the market or as investors choose to hoard.

• The Global Deficit: We are currently entering the sixth consecutive year of a structural silver deficit. Between 2021 and 2025, the world over-consumed roughly 900 million ounces more than it produced.
• The Stockpile Drain: Those deficits were covered by drawing down known inventories (LBMA and COMEX). But as of this month, those vault cushions are at their thinnest levels in decades.
• The Investment Crowding: The total investable silver market is tiny, about $100 to 150 billion in total liquid physical bars/coins. If even 1% of the $250 trillion in global household wealth decides to "hedge" against the falling Dollar, that’s $2.5 trillion trying to fit into a $100 billion straw. It isn't just a squeeze; it’s a physical impossibility. Add to that for the last 5 years, 100  to 300 million ounces a year in deficits has been the norm
   

Why Gold is the Anchor

While silver is the high-octane play, gold is the anchor. Gold is nearing $5,000/oz because the debt-to-GDP ratio and its weaponization has turned the Dollar into a melting ice cube. It will continue its climb past 6000 and  7000 and continue onward as the Age Of Commodities continues.
 

Performance Tracker

If you had bought the primary movers I identified in early January when they were at their lows, your portfolio would be outperforming the S&P 500 by an order of magnitude. In 15 trading days so far, while the S&P has struggled and is up 1% for the Year, Silver has been in a parabolic rally that I predict will continue.

• Metalla Royalty & Streaming (MTA) up +11.7%
• Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) up +24.0%
• Sprott Physical Silver Trust (PSLV) up +39.5%
• Sprott Silver Miners & Physical Silver ETF (SLVR) up +47.1%
• Sprott Active Gold & Silver Miners ETF (GBUG) up +28.8%
   

The Supply Reality Problem

Many say high prices will bring more supply. They are wrong.

• 72% of silver comes as a "byproduct" of mining copper, lead, and zinc.
• The Logic: Even if silver goes to $200, and I believe it will, a copper miner won't build a new $2 billion mine just for the silver. Silver supply is inelastic. It doesn't go up just because the price does.
• Mine Peak: Global mine production peaked in 2016 at 900 million ounces. In 2025, it fell to an estimated 835 million ounces. We are digging less silver now than we were 10 years ago.

The "New" Demand (The AI & Energy Multiplier)
The Great Divorce is being fueled by industries that cannot operate without silver, no matter the cost.

• Solar: In 2024, solar used 25% of global supply. In 2026, with the push for energy independence, that is accelerating.
• AI & Nuclear:  AI data centers and the new generation of small modular reactors (SMRs) are silver-heavy. These tech giants (Nvidia, Microsoft) have trillions in cash and they will pay $200/oz for silver without blinking because the silver cost is a rounding error compared to their chip values.
   

The Weaponized Dollar Catalyst

With the US debt-to-GDP ratio hitting terrifying new levels in 2026, the Dollar isn't just losing its value, it's losing credibility.

• The QE Trap: If the Fed prints to save the banks (again), the Dollar devalues further.
• The Pivot: Central Banks are already diversifying. While they buy gold for the vault, the Smart Money realizes silver is the Gold on High Octane.

This isn't just a rally; it's a re-pricing of a strategic asset that the world suddenly realized it can't live without. And one by one other commodities will start their own bull runs as the Age Of Commodities matures and the world moves to hard assets.
 

The Verdict

The Great Divorce is finalized. The New York paper market is currently a ghost town, trading iou’s for silver that doesn't exist. Meanwhile, the physical price is being set in Shanghai and Moscow. We are about to see the biggest rise in silver ever recorded in history. The blizzard outside my window will eventually melt, but the Silver Storm is just getting started. How high can this go? It depends on the demand of the Forbes crowd and how spooked they get. An avalanche starts slowly, slowly until it gains enough momentum to move the mountain. We are about to watch the mountain move. A once in a lifetime show. $140 on our stop to $200 and one day we will look back with all the big family offices and ask why we all hesitated at $100 silver?

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