Precious metals have started the new week on the front foot, thanks in part to a weaker US dollar. But with several risk events ahead of us in the next three weeks or so, we may see the dollar remaining largely supported on the dips, which could potentially keep a lid on gold (XAUUSD) and silver (XAGUSD) prices. Still, the path of least resistance at least on the longer-term horizon is still to the upside and I would be more inclined to buy the dips than to look for bearish setups. Both XAGUSD and XAUUSD forecast remains bullish. Out of the two metals, I continue to think silver has more room to the upside than gold.

What are the next big macro events for markets?

One big risk event is taking place next Sunday, on June 30. This will mark the first round of the French parliamentary election. But it is likely that the extent of Marine Le Pen party's progress will only be known after the run-offs on July 7. This political uncertainty should keep the EUR/USD under pressure or at least limit the upside potential, keeping the dollar index supported. The single currency has started this week brightly, even if the latest polls continue to show Marine Le Pen’s far-right RN party remaining in the lead. Meanwhile, in the US, we will have a few important data releases too, starting with the May core PCE inflation figures this Friday, followed by the June non-farm jobs report next Friday, July 5, and the month’s CPI report on July 11.

Silver stuck in consolidation 

Following the release of stronger-than-expected PMI data from the US on Friday, the US dollar strengthened, and this weighed heavily on precious metals prices. It caused silver to drop more than 3.8% on the session, and gold turned sharply lower after briefly rising to a new high for the week earlier in the day on Friday. Despite Friday’s slump, the long-term bullish trend for silver remains intact as both metals continue to consolidate their 2024 gains. There’s no clear trend in the short-term outlook, with investors put off a little by the dollar’s recent strength, and reduced demand for haven assets in general with the yen continuing to drop to multi-decade lows, franc undermined by the SNB turning dovish, and equity indices remaining largely supported near recent highs. Indeed, the USD/JPY is closing in on its multi-decade high of 160.21 hit in April.

Silver could break out 

In the months ahead, silver could extend its climb towards $35 per ounce, if not higher. Inflation continues to rise in the US, and although it has significantly decreased in Europe and other regions, the risk of deflation is minimal, particularly with the recent surge in oil prices. Investors and central banks who missed the major upward trend will be eager to acquire the precious metal during any significant price drops. Many investors perceive the metals as providing appropriate protection against rising prices, after several years of above-forecast inflation eroded the purchase power of fiat currencies.

Silver technical and trade ideas

Friday’s drop in silver has sent the metal below $30 where it was probing liquidity at time of writing and testing key short-term support around $29.50 area. In light of Friday’s big drop, I wouldn’t be surprised if today’s small gains evaporate later on in the day. This, however, will not necessarily make silver’s technical forecast bearish.

While there is a risk that silver could drop a little deeper, it is worth remembering that all this volatility is happening inside a bullish continuation pattern, namely a bull flag. By definition, silver can potentially drop to the support trend of this pattern, and still maintain a bullish technical outlook. 

In terms of key support and resistance levels to watch on silver, one big level is at around $28.70. This support level was tested a couple of weeks ago and held, which is a positive sign. Assuming the metal can continue to hold above this area, and defend its bullish trend line, silver looks like it is gearing up for another major breakout. 

The metal broke above a major resistance area of $29-$30 earlier this year, although demand concerns over China meant the breakout would quickly run into trouble. Still, the white metal has lots of ground to make up on the yellow metal and it could narrow the price gap to near the historical average over time.

A potential rise back above the trend resistance of the bull flag around $30.50 is what could trigger the next phase of technical buying pressure now that prices are no longer at overbought levels on oscillators like the RSI. 

So, a potential rally to $35 for silver in the coming weeks wouldn't be surprising, given the significant breakout recently observed on long-term charts. However, it's prudent to wait for confirmation on the lower time frame before making any premature assumptions.

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