Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD Holds Below $28.50 As Traders Shred Bets On Deeper Fed Rate Cuts

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  • Silver price drifts lower to $28.15 in Friday’s early Asian session, down 0.70% on the day. 
  • US July Retail Sales came in better than expected, rising 1.0% MoM; Initials Jobless Claims fell to 227K last week.
  • Traders will watch the Fed's Goolsbee speech and first reading of US August Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for fresh impetus. 

Silver price (XAG/USD) edges lower to near $28.15 on Friday during the Asian trading hours. The diminishing hope for a deeper interest rate by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in September after the recent upbeat US data weighs on the white metal. 

The encouraging US economic data on Thursday has eased fears about a potential recession in the United States and reduced the speculation of an agressive rate cut by the Fed in September. This, in turn, drags the white metal lower. It’s worth noting that higher interest rates generally decrease the demand for precious metals and price. 

The US Census Bureau revealed on Thursday that Retail Sales rose by 1.0% MoM in July versus -0.2% prior, better than the 0.3% increase expected. Additionally, the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits declined by 7K to 227K for the week ending August 10, lower than the market consensus of 235K and the previous reading of 234K. This is the second consecutive week in which the number of Initial Jobless Claims has been lower than expected, suggesting that labor market conditions are not as weak as the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) figures for July showed earlier this month. 

On Thursday, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said that he believes the time is approaching when it will be appropriate for the Fed to cut interest rates as inflation is on a path towards the 2% target. Traders will take more cues from the Fed's Austan Goolsbee speech on Friday for the US interest rate outlook. Any dovish remarks from the Fed official might provide some support to the Silver. Also, the preliminary US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for August, Building Permits and Housing Starts will be published later in the day. 


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