Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD Plunged Below The 100-day SMA As The USD Recovers
On Monday, the XAG/USD Silver spot price tumbled near the 100-day Simple Moving Average near the $23.20 area seeing more than 1.80% losses. Rising US yields and a stronger USD following Friday’s sell-off are mainly responsibles for the metal’s decline.
As the focus turns to the next set of inflation data from the US, markets continue to digest Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Job creation cooled down, and wages increased, but the investors dumping the US Dollar during Friday’s session indicated that investors weighted more the decrease in the number of people employed. Still, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will consider rising wage inflation in their next meetings. For the rest of the week, the highlight is the release of inflation data on Thursday, with the Headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) index expected to accelerate to 3.3% YoY and the Core CPI, which is seen falling to 4.7% in the same month.
In response, the US bond yields are edging lower. The 10-year bond yield stands at 4.08%, up by 1.04 % on the day. The 2-year yield stands neutral at 4.77%, and the 5-year yield is at 4.16% with 0.61 % gains.
Regarding the following Fed decisions, according to the CME FedWatch tool, markets discount higher odds of a pause in September with low odds of 20% of a 25 basis point (bps). Those probabilities rise to 30% in November, where the stronger case is also no-hike by the Fed.
XAG/USD levels to watch
Based on the daily chart, the XAG/USD exhibits a bearish outlook for the short term. Both Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remain in negative territory, with the RSI below its midline and showing a southward slope. The MACD is also displaying red bars, indicating a strengthening bearish momentum. Plus, the pair is below the 20,100 and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), pointing towards the prevailing strength of the bears in the larger context and the buyers facing a challenging situation.
Support levels: $23.00, $22.90, $22.70.
Resistance levels: $23.20 (200-day SMA), $23.50, $23.70.
XAG/USD Daily chart
(Click on image to enlarge)
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XAG/USD
| OVERVIEW | |
|---|---|
| Today last price | 23.12 |
| Today Daily Change | -0.51 |
| Today Daily Change % | -2.16 |
| Today daily open | 23.63 |
| TRENDS | |
|---|---|
| Daily SMA20 | 24.35 |
| Daily SMA50 | 23.73 |
| Daily SMA100 | 24.05 |
| Daily SMA200 | 23.17 |
| LEVELS | |
|---|---|
| Previous Daily High | 23.8 |
| Previous Daily Low | 23.23 |
| Previous Weekly High | 24.84 |
| Previous Weekly Low | 23.23 |
| Previous Monthly High | 25.27 |
| Previous Monthly Low | 22.52 |
| Daily Fibonacci 38.2% | 23.58 |
| Daily Fibonacci 61.8% | 23.44 |
| Daily Pivot Point S1 | 23.3 |
| Daily Pivot Point S2 | 22.98 |
| Daily Pivot Point S3 | 22.73 |
| Daily Pivot Point R1 | 23.87 |
| Daily Pivot Point R2 | 24.12 |
| Daily Pivot Point R3 | 24.44 |
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