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We saw another action-packed night in the gold and silver markets leading into Friday morning trading, as the gold futures neared the $3,700 mark again, while the silver futures actually briefly broke above the $43 level.

The gold futures are currently up $9 to $3,683.
 

The silver futures are up 65 cents to $42.80, and the current high of the day, as well as the rally of the past two years is $43.09.
 

We've talked plenty this week about the tightness in the silver market, and how TD Securities is now warning that an issue with the silver supply could be a matter of months, not years, at this point.

But to round out the week, there are some geopolitical comments that I wanted to highlight, as if you take a step back and look at the bigger picture, I feel like these are equally important.

First were a series of rather unsettling comments that President Donald Trump made last week in regards to China, Russia, and India.

“Looks like we’ve lost India and Russia to deepest, darkest China,” Trump said. “May they have a long and prosperous future together!“

He also added the following:

“Please give my warmest regards to Vladimir Putin, and Kim Jong Un, as you conspire against the United States of America,” Trump wrote in a message to Xi on Truth Social.

These are the kinds of comments I've been having a hard time with. I understand it's a negotiation, and that there are legitimate grievances on each side. Yet in my 47 years of interacting with people, I can't remember many times when a relationship was actually aided by someone inflaming a situation that was already tense, with a lot at stake for all involved.

Which makes it even more confusing to hear him say the following:

“My relationship with all of them is very good. We’re going to find out how good it is over the next week or two.”

So, is the relationship very good? Or is that not quite the case? Or is it in reality a bit more up in the air, as the second sentence here suggests?

Also, if it's uncertain enough that the events of the next two weeks could play a big role in determining how strong those relationships really are, is it really the best idea to poke the bear at a time when some of these large creditors to the United States are already pulling away?

“I’m not concerned at all,” Trump said. “We have the strongest military in the world by far, and they would never use their military on us, believe me. That would be the worst thing that they could ever do.”

A military analyst I am not. Although it seems like the recent situation with the rare earths deal with China would suggest that this last statement is probably less than fully representative of the situation.

Additionally, when Trump mentioned that he might be losing India to the East, that is actually reflected in the data, which shows India has been buying fewer U.S. Treasuries and more gold.

Ahead of US President Donald Trump’s decision to slap a 50 per cent tariff on Indian imports, India had pared down its exposure to US Treasury Bills (T-bills) over the past year, signalling a cautious shift in the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) foreign exchange reserve strategy. This trend could get more pronounced going forward, even though there are multiple factors that could come into play as the trade-off is debated in the policy circles.

According to US Department of Treasury data, India’s holdings in US securities had peaked at $247.2 billion in September 2024, before sliding gradually to about $219.1 billion by December 2024. India, the 10th-largest investor in T-bills, held around $227 billion in US Treasury securities as of June 2025, compared with $242 billion in June 2024. The decline of about $20 billion since September last year reflects a measured reduction spread over several months.

At the same time, the central bank has adjusted its gold reserves. RBI data shows that gold held abroad declined to 348.62 tonnes in March 2025, compared with 387.26 tonnes a year earlier. Domestically, the RBI held 511.99 tonnes in March 2025, a sharp rise from 408.10 tonnes in March 2024. This rebalancing highlights the RBI’s dual approach of diversifying assets while maintaining sufficient liquidity.

This article from The Indian Express also talks about another theme that we've discussed quite a bit here in the recent years, in how the sanctions on Russia set a precedent that is influencing the decision-making of foreign counterparties.

With President Trump imposing steep tariffs on Indian imports, a pressing question arises: could Washington take further steps targeting India’s vast investments in US securities? The precedent is not far behind, after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the US and its allies moved swiftly to freeze Moscow’s access to its foreign reserves, according to market sources.

Analysts say that the US has the ability to freeze or restrict access to Treasury securities in exceptional cases, typically driven by geopolitical or national security concerns. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Washington and its allies blocked Moscow’s access to a significant share of its foreign reserves held overseas, including dollar- and euro-denominated assets. The episode underscored that, in extreme circumstances, the US can effectively cut off a country’s access to its Treasury holdings through the US financial system. A rare event with little precedent, but a theoretical possibility.

I think it's significant that this is coming from an Indian news service, as it's reflective of their perspective, not the Western media's. Because while we may or may not agree, I do think it's representative of what people and decision makers in some of these countries are feeling.

It’s probably also not entirely unrelated that India is considering changes to their pension programs that could further boost gold ETF investment.

According to a Bloomberg report, retirement fund managers met multiple times with officials from the Pension Fund Regulatory and Development Authority. In addition to the request to lift limits on gold ETFs, managers also requested changes to rules governing real estate investment trusts and infrastructure trusts, also considered alternative assets.

Obviously, Trump has talked about how he plans to respond to any countries that move forward with de-dollarization efforts by kicking them out of the Western system. As I touched on in the Silver Report that we finally released last Friday, I still think it's less certain that such a showdown would ultimately play out in the way that he is suggesting or presumably expects. Maybe it will, but I think that's far less of a certainty than his tone would indicate.

But in either case, it's still been a great week for gold and silver investors, and I hope you have a smile on your face as you get ready for a wonderful weekend.

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