Silver Chartbook - When It Counts

It always counts! That’s the problem. There is never a day off. Michael Jordan's secret was to play each game as if it was his last. A consistent eagerness to win. This got him into a lot of trouble with management where political, strategic, and resource allocation decisions are made. In trading, Jordan would have been a champion as well. Since individual trades are meaningless and random in the outcome, while sample size trading, thinking in probabilities, is everything. But that requires consistent execution. You can´t think after a string of losers the next trade to be a huge winner or a huge loser and act differently. You simply need to execute focused and unemotional. Sounds easy? Far from it. When it counts.

There are no sick days, there is no playing hooky – you can’t take a day off or allow yourself to slack otherwise you skew the outcome of your game. Rest assured if you make mistakes they are always made at exactly the worst time. 

Silver, Daily Chart: Cashing In

Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart as of August 5th, 2020.

Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart as of August 5th, 2020.

On Wednesday, August 5th we cashed in our recent reload trade runner (see our quad exit strategy) triggered by an intra-day double top. With an entry on 7/28/20 at US$22.60 and an exit at US$26.95, this runner generated a profit of 19.25%.

We are still holding runners from entry levels of US$11.97 (3/18/20), US$12.52 (3/23/20), US$14.01 (3/31/20), US$13.95 (4/1/20) and US$19.33 (7/17/20). Without this additional exposure, we would have not exited this specific position. Due to the fact of Silver being in an extended up move at these levels which increases total position exposure risk versus runner reward, it was sensible to lighten the load. This frees capital for reentries at lower price levels.

However, we have not sold any of our physical Silver holdings! Even though only talking partial exits here, the complexity of trading comes to the forefront. It illustrates that one always has to step up when it counts. And it always counts.

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Disclosure: None.

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Thomas Werner 1 month ago Member's comment

It appears all is well then? Thanks.