We kicked off the day with Retail Sales MoM (Mar), Import Prices MoM & YoY (Mar), Initial Jobless Claims (09/Apr), Export Prices MoM & YoY Mar), Retails Sales Ex Autos MoM (Mar), Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM (Mar), Continuing Jobless Claims (02/Apr), Jobless Claims 4-Week Average (09/Apr) and Retail Sales YoY (Mar) at 7:30 A.M., Michigan Consumer SentimentPrel (Apr), Business Inventories MoM (Feb), Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations Prel (Apr), Michigan Consumer Expectations Prel (Apr), Michigan Current Conditions Prel (Apr), Michigan Inflation Expectations Prel (Apr) and Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM at 9:00 A.M., EIA Natural Gas Storage at 9:30 A.M.,4-Week & 8-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Baker Hughes Oil & Total rig Counts at 12:00 P.M., Fed Mester Speech at 1:30 P.M. and Fed Harker Speech at 5:00 P.M.

Photo by Waldemar Brandt on Unsplash

On the Corn Front we ended up higher and funds came back to the dancefloor and were net buyers of 8,000 corn positions and they are estimated to be long 386,000 contracts. Index funds are long 493,000 contracts which combined, fund are 55% of the open interest. Yesterday’s winter storm causing snow, hale, high winds, tornados, heavy rains and snow. Just another potion to put in the pot of the witches brew. We will have the long weekend to access the overall damage. You can be sure were not coming out of the blocks in plantings this year. In the overnight electronic session the May corn is currently trading at 787 ¼ which is 3 ¾ cents higher. The trading range has been 789 ¼ to 781.

On the Ethanol Front Biden’s ethanol boost of E15 for summertime, blends has producers happy but meat companies such as the chicken industry fear higher grain costs. The inflation numbers we saw with the CPI and PPI is just a testament of what we are going to see in the future. I do not expect a good jobs number with the inflationary data. There were no trades or open interest in ethanol futures.

On the Crude Oil Front the May crude oil options expire today. The market has rolled with every headline from Russia, OPEC production talks and the release of the SPR’s. But what most major headlines fail to show the energy crisis has been a direct effect of the current administrations attack on the oil industry and energy policy. In the overnight electronic session the May crude oil is currently trading at 10274 which is 151 points lower. The trading range has been 10433 to 10246. We may be close to a bottom with the long weekend ahead, and I would not want to be short crude or products.

On the Natural Gas Front the market has been rolling and continues that trend. The winter storm added further support. Today we have the EIA Natural Gas Storage. The Thomson Reuters poll with 13 analysts participating estimates range from injections of 5 bcf to 62 bcf with the median 13 bcf and actual 15 bcf. In the overnight electronic session the May natural gas is currently trading at 7.035 which is 0.038 higher. The trading range has been 7.127 to 6.973.