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We kickoff the day with Export Sales at 7:30 A.M., Existing Home Sales, Existing Home Sales MoM, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations Prel. Michigan Consumer Expectations Prel, Michigan Current Conditions , and Michigan Inflation Expectations Prel at 9:00 A.M., Fed Barr Speech and Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Count at 12:00 P.M., Cattle on Feed at 2:00 P.M., Net Long-term TIC Flows, Foreign Bond Investment, and Overall Net Capital Flows at 3:00 P.M., and Fed Daily Speech at 3:15 P.M.

Freddie Mac’s weekly survey of US Mortgage Rates show that after stabilizing in early January, mortgage rate turned back down last week. The average 30-year-fixed-rate mortgage was down 0.06% for the week to 6.60%, while the 15-Year rate was down 0.1% at 5.76%. But compared to a year ago, the 30-Year rate 0.48% was above last year. From the peak in late October, the 30-Year rate has dropped 1.19%, which is the fastest 12-Week decline since January 2009 and the 2^nd fastest since August 1989. Brazil stays wet in the 6-15 day period while dryness lingers in Argentina. The GFS & Eu models are consistent in calling for the return of regular showers in central and northern Brazil beginning Jan 23 but a lengthy/expansive period of dryness and warming temps across Argentina and far south Brazil. A high pressure Ridge aloft in north and west Argentina cuts of soil moisture nearby and Ag Resources (ARC) maintains the duration of this pattern is important. The GFS model’s projected 8-day change in soil moisture. Abundant rainfall impacts Mato Grosso, Goias, and Minas Gerais, where 7-day accumulations estimated in a range of 2-4”. Brazilian rainfall blankets all but Rio Grande do Sul in the south. This pattern will be most welcome in the states of Mato Grosso do Sul and Parana. Early Brazilian soybean harvest may be challenged but the boost in subsoil moisture is important ahead of winter corn seeding in February. There is a general consensus that a pattern of net soil moisture loss occurs in Argentina over the next 20 days. Farmers would like to see a rise in cash prices and all will follow weather patterns very closely in February. CBOT corn futures ended unchanged to a couple cents higher. Weekly ethanol production on Friday is expected to be lower after bitter cold temperatures. Key growing regions of Southern Brazil and Argentina look to be short on rain into the end of January. Rains are needed for recently planted crops. China imported a record 4.95 MMT of corn in December. The previous record, for any month, was 3.57 MMT in June 2021. In 2020/21, China’s total imports were a record 29.55 MMT. For this year, the USDA projects imports will be just 23 MMT vs. last year’s 18.7 MMT. For the first quarter of Oct-Sept international trade year, China has imported a record 10.6MMT. That’s up 8.4 MMT from a year ago. The previous record for first quarter imports was 4.62 MMT (set in 2020). It’s not just corn China is buying either. China’s first quarter imports of sorghum are up 29& from a year ago and barley imports are up 200% from a year ago. Imports of all feeds are a record 17MMT, up 200% from a year ago.

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