Reality Slowly Sinking In. The Corn & Ethanol Report

We started off the day with Durable Goods Orders MoM (Jun), Durable Goods Orders Ex-Transportation MoM (Jun) and Durable Goods ex-Defense MoM (Jun) at 7:30 A.M., Redbook YoY (24/Jul) 7:55 A.M., S&P-case-Shiller Home Price MoM & YoY (May) at 8:00 A.M., CB Consumer Confidence (Jul) and Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Jul) at 9:00 A.M., NY Fed Treasury Purchases 10 to 25 yrs. At 9:30 A.M., 42-Day Bill Auction at 10:30 A.m., 5-Year Note Auction at 12:00 P.M., API Energy Stocks at 3:30 P.M. and Day 1 of the FOMC Meeting.

Image by Free-Photos from Pixabay

On the Corn front, the Crop Progress report confirmed what we have been talking about with this weather market deteriorating the crop with more dryness West of the Mississippi. The Corn Belt is no doubt we are experiencing a severe drought and the funds are coming back being net buyers of corn. The good-to-excellent rating dropped 1% to 64%. And we can pile on with south America’s crop, carryover, yields and exports that will fuel a rally even more. There have been scattered rains but the heat has been depleting topsoil moisture. In the overnight electronic session the December corn is currently trading at 555 ¾ which is 9 cents higher. The trading range has been 557 to 545 ½.

On the Ethanol front, production has been down to no surprise to traders. The slow movement in the cash market in corn has shown up, not to mention the mandate drama. There were no trades posted in the overnight electronic session. The August contract settled at 2.320 and currently showing no market with Open Interest remaining at 2 contracts.

On the Crude Oil front, the market is trying to come to grips with Covid worries, China imports and OPEC+ adding barrels to the market. Long-Term, this is a bull market with the Biden administration’s energy policies that has pushed U.S. energy independence to an abrupt halt. In the overnight electronic session the September crude oil is currently trading at 7196 which is 5 tics higher. The trading range has been 7233 to 7146. All eyes will be watching the API report later today.

On the Natural Gas front, the market sold off from the highs in the overnight. Tomorrow is Last Trading Day on the August natural gas. The conflicting weather reports has increased market volatility. I still remain bullish overall as this market has a bright future. In the overnight electronic session the September natural gas is currently trading at 4.000 which is .082 lower. The trading range has been 4.094 to 3.990.

Disclaimer: A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in ...

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