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At the end of the quarter, the Dow was ahead by 3.8%, the Transports were down 3%, while the Russell was barely positive at +1%. 

Meanwhile, on Friday we learned personal income was up 0.5% versus the 0.4% estimate, but personal spending was a bit weaker at +0.2% versus the expected +0.3%. The one that everyone was waiting for was the May PCE report and that came in inline – not hotter, not cooler – which some found to be a disappointment. 

S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)

In other markets, oil remains in the $80/$85 trading range. Oil barometers are now reporting that asset managers have boosted their long positions in oil – as they expect the commodity to rise over the coming summer months as demand surges and supplies come into balance. 

Remember: The Saudis continue to hold production at lower levels to try and get prices higher. Calls for $90 oil are now common. We are now well above all three trendlines and have the April high of $85 as the next target. Gold was recently trading at $2,345. It remains in the broader range of $2,300/$2,400 that we have been discussing.

Of the 11 S&P sectors, this is how they ended the quarter: Tech up 28%, Communications +26%, Financials +9.2%, Energy +9%, Utilities +7.5%, Consumer Staples +7.5%, Industrials +6.9%, Healthcare +6.9%, Consumer Discretionary + 5.2%, and Materials + 3.1%. Real Estate remains in negative territory at -4.1%.

If we move further down the line, we see that Semis were up 28%, Homebuilders +5.6%, Retail +3.6%, and Airlines +3.3%. The Growth trade is +28%, while the Value trade is up 4.5%.

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