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The gold and silver prices were mostly flat on the day leading up to the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting and press conference, where the Fed suggested through its ‘dot plot’ that it expects one less interest rate cut both this year and next year relative to the Fed’s dot plot back in March. Also, as widely anticipated, they left their Fed Funds rate unchanged.

As a result, you can see how the gold futures fell off a cliff at 2 PM when the news was released.

Here you can see a similar pattern in silver, except for how silver started its decline earlier in the day.

Here was CNBC‘s recap of the Fed meeting.

The Federal Open Market Committee kept its key borrowing rate targeted in a range between 4.25%-4.5%, where it has been since December.

Along with the rate decision, the committee indicated, through its closely watched “dot plot,” that two cuts by the end of 2025 are still on the table. However, it lopped off one reduction for both 2026 and 2027, putting the expected future rate cuts at four, or a full percentage point.

“Everyone that I know is forecasting a meaningful increase in inflation in coming months from tariffs because someone has to pay for the tariffs,” Powell said. “It will be someone in that chain that I mentioned, between the manufacturer, the exporter, the importer, the retailer, ultimately somebody putting it into a good of some kind or just the consumer buying it.“

Here’s the Fed’s ‘dot plot.’

The top line of each category represents the current projections that came out today, and on the second line you can see the projections issued last quarter at the Fed’s March meeting.

It’s interesting that the Fed raised their PCE and core PCE inflation forecast for 2025 by 0.3% each. As despite that pushing the current forecast for each rate over 3%, the Fed is still somehow saying that those inflation numbers are going to come down to 2.4% by next year, and 2.1% by 2027.

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