We kicked off the day with Challenger Job Cuts at 6:00 A.M., Export Sales, Trade Balance, Exports, Imports, Initial Jobless Claims, Nonfarm Productivity QoQ Prel, Unit Labour Costs QoQ Prel, Continuing Jobless Claims, and Jobless Claims 4-Week Average at 7:30 A.M., Used Car Prices MoM & YoY at 8:00 A.M., NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months at 8:20 A.M., Wholesale Inventories MoM at 9:00 A.M.,EIA Natural Gas Storage at 9:30 A.M., 4-Week & 8-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M.,15-Year & 30-Year Mortgage Rate at 11:00 A.M., Consumer Credit Change at 2:00 P.M., and Fed Balance Sheet at 3:30 P.M.

Ahead of Friday’s government employment report, the ADP private payrolls data showed that private businesses added 41,000 jobs in December, coming in fractionally under average trade estimates. Education/health services added 39,000 jobs, and leisure/hospitality added 24,000 jobs, while professional/business services lost 29,000 jobs, information lost 12,000 jobs, and manufacturing gave up 5,0000 jobs. Medium-sized companies added 34,000 jobs, and large companies added just 2,000. Year-over-year pay increases for job stayers rose by 4.4% in December, while job changers saw pay growth accelerate to 6.6%.

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Ag Resources Market Discussion

Commodity Inflation Unlikely Without Change in Crude Supply & Demand:

Energy markets are set to stay heavy amid record US production, the US’s seizure of 30-50 Mil Barrels of Venezuelan supply and as OPEC currently shows no willingness to meaningful cut future production. Commercial crude stocks on Jan 2^nd totaled 419 Mil Barrels, up 1% year-over-year. US production has now reached 13.8 Mil Barrels per day, up 2% year-over-year, and which requires sustained demand growth to prevent oversupply of the market in Apr-June. Note that motor gasoline consumption in 10 of the last 15 weeks has failed to exceed year-ago levels. ARC’s research suggests that spot WTI crude remains bound within a %50-$60 range in the first half of 2026. This aids row crop producer balance sheets but works against biofuel production margins and broad commodity inflation.

Corn Comments & Analysis

Corn Follows Soy Higher in Thin Volume; Positioning Ahead of Jan USDA Report Dominate; Ukrainian Offered Below US Origin:

Corn market choppiness persists ahead of key USDA report data due Jan 12^th. The market can’t shake the potential for a drop in final corn yield of more than 4-5 BPA, but barring a sub 180-yield, ARC looks for bearish supply pressure to resume as South American weather premium is extracted thereafter. It’s also critical that implied Sep-Nov feed/residual disappearance is at or above 2,600 Mil Bu, otherwise a rapid & intense reduction in total US corn demand unfolds. Interior cash markets don’t indicate any major surprises in yield or residual use. On a fob basis, Ukrainian corn is offered below US Gulf origin for the first time since Feb 25. Argentina’s harvest begins in 60 days. Argentine 10.5% wheat is $65/Bu cheaper, attracting SE Asian feed demand.

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