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In the Black Sea where global oil markets search for signs of an oil glut as oil tankers are adrift signs are mixed as far as the ability of Russia to export oil and its impact that sanctions are having on the global oil trade. Besides that the attacks from Ukraine and sanctions are having an impact but there are other reports of course that Russian oil is magically finding its way to its destination even with reports of Russian supply on water with no real direction.
According to a Reuters report oil shipments from Russia’s Black Sea ports, including Novorossiysk and the CPC terminal, fell about 1 million tons short of November’s schedule due to severe storms and recent drone attacks disrupting loading operations.
These setbacks are significant since Russia’s heavy crude grades—Urals, Siberian Light, and KEBCO—play a key role in stabilizing global oil markets. With only 2.5 million tons exported out of the planned 3.2 million, the situation highlights how Russian supply interruptions can influence worldwide energy stability. Still, the global market is adapting, showcasing the resilience and agility of the energy sector even in the face of challenges.
Yet at the same time there are reports that Chinese teapot refineries are still finding a way to get that Russian crude through there where refineries in reports that Black Sea insurance has soared 150% after ship attacks from Ukraine a report from Bloomberg says that as strike escalate so does the possibility of Russian retaliation against shipped connected to Ukraine.
At the same time, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) underscored the urgency of the situation by issuing a critical report highlighting that global refinery margins for diesel have surged to their highest point of the year since late October. According to the EIA, this spike is the result of a combination of refinery outages in Russia and the Middle East, along with newly imposed sanctions on Russian crude oil.
These disruptions have limited overall refinery production and tightened global diesel supplies, with the effects most noticeable in the Atlantic Basin, where benchmark prices at major hubs like Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA), New York Harbor, and the U.S. Gulf Coast have all climbed
The increase in global diesel prices has also impacted the U.S. market, given that refiners can sell into both domestic and export channels.
The EU’s recent sanctions targeting major Russian oil companies and restricting imports of Russian-derived refined products have further contributed to tight diesel markets, compounding previous bans implemented in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Attack n Russian refinery and export infrastructure have further reduced Russian product exports, forcing dependent markets to seek alternative supplies and driving prices higher. Outside Russia, the ongoing outage at Kuwait’s Al Zour refinery, alongside a busy refinery maintenance season in the Middle East and uncertainty over Nigeria’s Dangote refinery operations, has further limited available refined product supplies, intensifying pressure on the Atlantic Basin and supporting elevated global diesel prices.
There’s certainly no sign of an oil surplus in the market right now! According to the latest EIA data, U.S. crude oil refineries were hard at work during the week ending November 28, 2025, processing an average of 16.9 million barrels per day—an impressive increase of 433,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. Refineries operated at a robust 94.1% of their total capacity, highlighting strong demand and efficient operations.
Gasoline production saw a healthy boost as well, averaging 9.8 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production also climbed by 53,000 barrels per day, reaching an average of 5.1 million barrels per day. On the import front, U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.0 million barrels per day, which is a drop of 456,000 barrels from the prior week. Looking at the bigger picture, crude oil imports over the past four weeks averaged about 5.9 million barrels per day—down 14.4% compared to the same period last year, reflecting a shift toward domestic supply.
Motor gasoline imports, including both finished gasoline and blending components, averaged 772,000 barrels per day last week, while distillate fuel imports came in at 190,000 barrels per day.
Commercial crude oil inventories (not counting the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 0.6 million barrels from the previous week, bringing total inventories to 427.5 million barrels—about 3% below the five-year average for this time of year. Motor gasoline inventories jumped by 4.5 million barrels and are now just 2% below the five-year average. Both finished gasoline and blending component inventories rose last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 2.1 million barrels, but remain 7% below the five-year average, indicating steady consumption. Meanwhile, propane/propylene inventories decreased by 0.7 million barrels, although they are still 15% above the five-year average. Overall, total commercial petroleum inventories grew by 5.2 million barrels last week.
Despite these inventory builds, demand based on total products supplied over the last four weeks averaged a solid 20.3 million barrels per day, only 0.5% lower than the same period last year.
Motor gasoline supplied averaged 8.7 million barrels per day, slipping just 1.2% compared to last year, and distillate fuel supplied averaged 3.7 million barrels per day, down 2.0% year-over-year.
Jet fuel supplied was down 1.9% from the same four-week period last year.
All in all, these numbers show a dynamic and resilient energy sector, with refineries operating at high capacity and inventories remaining mostly in line with historical averages.
Despite slight dips in demand, the overall supply chain remains healthy and well-balanced, offering a positive outlook for the weeks ahead. As we’ve been talking about writing options for the crude oil market because of its extended range and that’s been working well but we have to continue to worry about the risk on the upside or heating supplies.
You bet it is cold! So cold that natural gas traded above $5.00 for the first time since December of 2022 .Jodi Shafto at Natural Gas Intelligence pointed to the brutal December cold that has set the stage for bullish breakout in January. Fox Weather confirms those weather driven demand concerns as the natural gas market must adjust to maybe it’s first real winter in ten years.Fox Weather says that this storm powerful cold front is making its way across the country with the possibility of several snow squalls developing along the way. Early Thursday, this front is beginning to move into the Northeast, and the fast-hitting bursts of snow could create extremely dangerous whiteout conditions and impact travel.Also, we are getting the EIA report that is we get a bigger withdrawal than 18bcfh then we could see a spike in prices as Fox Weather maps look scary cold
As highlighted by OIL Price, Asian LNG imports are taking an interesting turn this year—with high spot prices encouraging buyers to explore more cost-effective options like coal for the first time since 2022. Meanwhile, Europe is on track for another record-breaking year of LNG imports, fueled by lower gas storage and a strong appetite for U.S. LNG. This shift points to an exciting transformation in the global LNG landscape: Europe’s growing reliance on premium U.S. cargoes and Asia’s nimble approach to sourcing energy are shaping a dynamic, ever-evolving market.

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