We kicked off the day with Core PCE Price Index MoM & YoY, PCE Price Index MoM & YoY, Personal Income MoM, and Personal Spending MoM at 7:30 A.M., Chicago PMI at 8:45 A.M., Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations Final, Michigan Consumer Expectations Final, Michigan Current Conditions Final, and Michigan Inflation Expectations Final at 9:00 A.M., and Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Count at 12:00 P.M.

As harvest approaches producers are also focused on booking fall fertilizer needs and are frustrated that prices are not reflecting lower grain prices. The latest Illinois Production Cost Reportshowed that anhydrous ammonia was 15% higher than a year ago while monoammonium phosphate (MAP) was quoted 7% higher than last year. Dealers have been slow to lower prices as CBOT corn and soybean markets sit at multi-year lows. Ag Resources (ARC) showed a chart of the diammonium phosphate (DAP), the world’s most widely used phosphorus fertilizer, The average IL DAP price 6% above last year at $716/ton. Moreover, at current CBOT prices, it takes 193 bushels of corn to pay for 1 ton of DAP, up from 142 bushels last year and the most since 2009. US farmers are looking for ways to cut back on cost via fertilizer, seed or equipment. The US fertilizer is showing surprising strength as China curtails exports.

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Midwest Rain Chances Favor IA/MN; TX & Delta Get Soaked; Drought Expands in Late August:

The Central US forecast maintains moderate showers across much of IA & MN over the next 48 hours. Gulf moisture also impacts TX and the Southeast throughout the next 7 days, with cumulative rainfall of 1-4” forecast in TX, LA, AR, and MS. This will slow southern corn/soybean harvesting but works to ease flash drought there. Little/no rain is forecast in Dakota’s, IL, IN, OH, and Mi into Sep 8^th . Abnormal dryness has crept into the C Plains & E Midwest. Coming rain will ease/eliminate dryness in TX, LA, and AR but an expansion of drought is projected across the E Midwest into mid-September. Fortunately, temp moderation occurs in all areas beginning next week. Midwest highs September 1-8^th are forecast in the 70’s & low 80’s.

The South American forecast into Sep 12^th remains consistent with previous runs, needed showers producing rainfall of 1-2” will impact Buenos Aires and far southern Santa Fe this weekend. An arid pattern dominates the remainder of Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay, and there’s still no indication that the arrival of Brazil’s monsoon occurs prior to late September, and Mother Nature is unlikely to cooperate.

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