OPEC Sees Lower Oil Demand In The First Quarter 2021

OPEC has revised down its outlook for oil demand for the first quarter of 2021, from 94.17 to 93.22 mbpd, and increased its forecast for the rest of the year.

This enforces our base case scenario published in a previous article of a short term correction in oil prices before it resumes its rally again.


  1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21
January estimates 92,92 82,55 90,95 93,56 94,17 95,66 96,37 97,38
February estimates 93,10 82,82 91,18 93,89 93,22 95,92 97,02 97,94
spread 0,18 0,27 0,22 0,33 -0,95 0,27 0,65 0,56

As a result, the oil short supply gap in the first quarter is expected to be much narrower, reaching a certain equilibrium between supply and demand.

Oil prices have erased nearly half of this week's gains and are expected to retrace further down before resuming the upward trend.

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