E Oil’s Slippery Slope

After spending nearly three weeks above the $70 per barrel level last month, West Texas crude oil looks a whole lot weaker in June. Just take a look at the chart.

That’s a support break and with Monday’s decline the beginnings of a trend line breakdown. While the market looks oversold short-term (meaning it is prone to a bounce) the path of least resistance would be to the downside if that trend break confirms.

How low? Mid 56-handle.

Why? That is for others to ponder but the only thing I can postulate away from the charts is the tariff stuff.  Maybe the Saudis and Russia are pumping a bit more. There, that’s as fundamental as I will get here.

But whatever the reason, let’s talk about what a real correction in energy might be.

In the weekly chart, we can see supports going back to last year and then arguably back to 2015. I think the real story is the momentum divergence and bearish weekly reversal last month. Apparently, the market moved to high, too fast. You could tell in the punditry, with their rosy forecasts and little regard for the fact that the U.S. is pumping a lot. Oops, I did it again with the fundamentals.

Good news for drivers – eventually – so there’s that.

I want to look at it as a better opportunity to buy into this market at lower prices. Specifically, the mid 56-handle. You can look at the chart to see why so I won’t bore you with more text. The point is that I am a future oil bull but just at lower prices. I do not think the bull market in oil – and yes, it has been a bull market with a 70% gain over the past year and more from the actual bottom in early 2016.

Why the decline? Again, unless you are a talking head, who cares? We’re not trying to write a book about it. Rather, we just want to make a little money off of it.

Bonus chart!

I do question why truckers look like they are ready to roll over here. With crude tanking, so to speak, they should actually break out to the upside from their recent medium- and short-term ranges.

Disclosure: No positions in anything covered.

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Barry Hochhauser 8 months ago Member's comment

Good article and very true. Let's not get sidetracked by the details and jump on a money making opportunity when we see one!