• OPEC+ eyes fourth 411k bpd supply boost
• Risk of oversupply weighs on crude prices
• Brent could drop near $60 on larger hike
• Demand outlook dimmed by tariff concerns

Oil benchmarks are trading lower as OPEC+ prepares for a fourth consecutive 411,000 bpd output hike, a move that adds to growing oversupply concerns. While markets have largely priced in this baseline increase, any larger-than-expected boost could trigger a sharper sell-off, potentially driving Brent crude toward $60/bbl.

With global demand already pressured by U.S. tariffs and trade uncertainty, oil’s upside remains limited. Unless a fresh geopolitical flare-up in the Middle East reintroduces supply-side risks, the near-term bias for crude remains to the downside.
 

Technical picture

At the time of writing Brent is trading at $67.76, slipping below both the 21-day MA ($69.65) and the 100-day MA ($68.12), signaling short-term weakness. Still, it remains above the 50-day MA ($66.20), which may act as initial support.

Momentum indicators suggest a bearish bias. The RSI sits at 48.61, hovering near neutral but leaning slightly negative. Meanwhile, the MACD (0.193) remains below the signal line (0.755), indicating fading bullish momentum.

A break below $66.20 could accelerate downside toward the $64–$60 area. On the upside, Brent would need to reclaim $69.65 to shift the near-term technical tone.

More By This Author: