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• Oil prices decline more than 2% this week, breaking a seven-week streak of gains.
• WTI crude futures dip below $81 per barrel due to China’s weakening economy and US interest rate hike fears.
• Weaker economic data and property sector crisis in China add to concerns about its economy, despite a surprise rate cut from the central bank.
• Federal Reserve’s July meeting minutes reveal policymakers’ focus on inflation risks and the potential for extended restrictive monetary policy or further rate hikes.
• Market cautiousness persists despite supply tightening by OPEC+ leaders Saudi Arabia and Russia.
• Brent crude futures stabilize above $84 per barrel but are set for a weekly decrease of about 3%, ending seven weeks of gains.
• China’s economic weakening and US rate hike fears overshadow tightening global supplies.
• Concerns deepen due to disappointing Chinese economic data and property sector turmoil, despite central bank rate cut.
• Federal Reserve minutes highlight policymakers’ emphasis on inflation risks, fostering potential for prolonged restrictive monetary policy or additional rate hikes.
• OPEC+ supply curtailment by Saudi Arabia and Russia fails to dispel market caution amidst supply tightness indicators.

The Crude oil market experienced a slight decrease in the dollar and negative volatility, propelling the price toward the previous session’s high. As the market traded up by approximately 0.5% around $80, participants might anticipate absorption at this level.

On the daily interval, there are signs that the market is establishing a balanced price range, potentially due to short covering and the entry of buyers around the lower extreme, with an eye on targeting the upper extreme.

Analyzing the volume profile structures of both the previous and current sessions, a p-shaped profile structure is evident with the Point of Control (POC) acting as a selling point. The current profile suggests an inverted structure, hinting at potential absorption for higher prices in the upcoming week.

Today’s session seems to have maintained a balanced approach, with trading occurring around the extremes of the previous VWAP value close area. The prior VWAP close level served as an initial selling point during the overnight session.

In terms of the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report for the managed money sector, there’s a mixed viewpoint with instances of long liquidations and short covering as of data from August 8th. This suggests a balanced market approach as money managers realize profits.

The options landscape reflects increased interest toward the upper standard deviation area, particularly around the $87 mark in relation to the current price. However, this perspective could change from one session to the next.

Taking a medium-term perspective considering the Year’s developing value area, there’s evidence of a retracement toward the upper value extreme of the Year. This potential support zone could favor buyers in the upcoming session, especially considering the recent emergence of buyers in both yesterday’s and today’s sessions.

Furthermore, the reported 5.96 million barrel decline in US crude oil inventories for the week ending August 11th could indicate a bullish bias for the forthcoming week.

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