Fundamental Analysis

Oil prices broke new multi-year records on Monday (Oct. 25) because of statements by the Saudi Energy Minister over the weekend, leaving little room for an upcoming increase in supply from OPEC and its allies. The latter, interviewed on Saturday (Oct. 23) by Bloomberg on the sidelines of the "Saudi Green Initiative" forum, also added that the crisis was somehow contained but not over yet, and particularly in some regions like Russia, where Moscow is in fact preparing for an eleven-day shutdown of all its non-essential services (restaurants, beauty salons, clothing or furniture stores, gyms, etc.) from this upcoming Thursday, in the hope of stemming the serious outbreak of the Covid-19 epidemic that is hitting the country. On the other hand, Minister of State for Petroleum Resources of Nigeria Timipre Sylva, also interviewed by Bloomberg during the same forum, estimated that the market was still too fragile.

WTI Crude Oil (CLZ21) Futures (December contract, daily chart)

In summary, we should not expect a further increase in supply beyond the expected level from OPEC+ in the near future, despite a strong recovery in demand, as estimated by Goldman Sachs in a note on Sunday, saying that it could soon reach its pre-Covid-19 level, i.e., 100 million barrels per day!