Oil Back In The Red Ahead Of US Nonfarm Payrolls

Pump Jack, Oilfield, Oil, Fuel, Industry, Petroleum

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  • WTI Oil dips back in red ahead of the US session. 
  • Oil traders are though betting on a pickup in demand as interest-rate cuts should spur economic growth. 
  • The US Dollar Index fell below the 103.00 level, trading in the mid-102.00s ahead of NFP. 

Oil prices are back in the red on Friday, despite earlier looking set to head to the $80 level, as investors seem to bet on an improved demand outlook. The upmove came after dovish comments from US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who said in a two-day hearing in Congress that the Fed is ready to cut interest rates. Lower rates are likely to spur economic growth, and this could mean more demand for Oil.

The US Dollar, however, didn’t like this message. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of foreign currencies, fell sharply on Thursday. With the US Dollar weakening, Oil prices have room to rise in the correlation between the Greenback and the commodity. Should the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) number this afternoon trigger another round of US Dollar weakness, Crude could close off this week above $80.

Crude Oil (WTI) trades at $77.95 per barrel, and Brent Oil trades at $82.13 per barrel at the time of writing. 

Oil news and market movers: China demand front runner

  • Oil traders are back to placing bullish bets on Oil with the underlying idea that rate interest-rate cuts in both Europe and the US would spur economic growth and thus see a pickup in demand again.
  • An increase in demand is already underway in Asia, with India and China buying up every cheap contract in sight as their industrial and travel demand picks up pace. These two sectors are very Oil-consuming. 
  • The failed ceasefire talks are keeping tensions high in Gaza. 
  • This Friday, the Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count is set to be released at 18:00 GMT. The previous count was at 506 rigs. 

Oil Technical Analysis: NFP miss would mean bullish oil

Oil prices are entering dynamics not seen since 2013 when a substantially weaker US Dollar opened up space for Oil prices to rise towards $100. Seeing the current rate cuts and dovish stance by the Fed, more upside could be at hand.. Although $100 is still far off, chances are growing. 

Oil bulls still clearly see more upside potential. The break above $80 though does not seem to be taking place that quickly, and $85 is appearing as the next cap. Further up, $86.90 follows suit before targeting $89.64 and $90.00 as top levels. 

On the downside, the 200-day Simple Moving average (SMA) near $77.93 is the first point of contact to provide some support. Quite close behind are the 100-day and the 55-day SMAs near $75.81 and $75.26, respectively. Add the pivotal level near $75.27, and it looks like the downside is very limited and well-equipped to resist the selling pressure. 

US WTI Crude Oil: Daily Chart

US WTI Crude Oil: Daily Chart

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