No Win With Lower Inflation & Lower Purchasing Power - The Corn & Ethanol Report
We kickoff the day with Export Sales, Export Prices MoM & YoY, and Import Prices MoM & YoY at 7:30 A.m., Fed Harker Speech at 8;00 A.M., Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations Prel, Michigan Consumer Expectations Prel, Michigan Current Conditions Prel, and Michigan Inflation Expectations Prel at 9:00 A.M., and Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Count at 12:00 P.M.
On the Corn Front world ending stocks were lower than anticipated. Us production was lower along with yields. Corn and wheat followed soybeans lead as negative corn crop and yield woke the bulls from their summer slumber. Yesterday morning began with Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed another month of record high consumer prices, with an inflation rate of 3.&% in September. This was unchanged from August and down from 8.2% a year ago but still above the Fed’s 2% target. Food inflation eased to a 26-month low of 3.7% but food prices were at an all-time high. While the inflation rate continues to ease, the purchasing power of the US dollar continues to decline at a rate not seen since the early 1990’s. Traders will be watching if the market continues to follow through, will exports get better, after yesterday’s WASDE data that was view as bullish. Weather in South America which will determine US export potential in spring and summer 2024. Argentina is extremely dry, but could benefit later from improved moisture in the long run as El Nino remains intact. In central and norther Brazil are dry with forecasts are trending warmer and drier. This is education of where the fundamentals start in 2024. In the overnight electronic session the December corn is currently trading at 497 ¼ which is 1 ¼ of a cent higher, the trading range has been 498 to 492 ½.
On the Ethanol front a press release from POET LLC, the world’s largest producer of biofuels, and a leader in bioproducts, South Dakota State University, and South Dakota Mines celebrated the grand opening of the POET Bioproducts Center. Through the support of POET, the state of South Dakota, and other members of the Bio Leadership Coalition, the POET Bioproducts Center was constructed at the Research Park at SDSU. The first-of-its-kind innovative ecosystem between students, faculty, and industry partners will now collaborate on the next generation of bioproducts. The facility and operating body, Dakota BioWorx, represent a public private partnership that will enhance research, economic development, and workforce preparation in South Dakota. The full release from POET LLC could be found in Ethanol Producer Magazine or POET’s web-site. There were no trades or open interest in ethanol futures.
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