Photo by Waldemar on Unsplash

We kicked off the day with MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate, MBA Mortgage Applications, MBA Mortgage Market Index, MBA Mortgage Refinance Index, and MBA Purchase Index at 6:00 A.M., ADP Employment Change at 7:15 A.M., S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final at 8:45 A.M., ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing Employment, Construction Spending MoM, ISM Manufacturing New Orders, and ISM Manufacturing Prices at 9:00 A.M., EIA Energy Stocks at 9:30 A.M., 17-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., and Cotton System, Dairy Products Sales, Fats & Oils, and Grain Crushings at 2:00 P.M.

Analysis of USDA’s Sep Corn Stocks

NASS Sep Stocks data was bearish for corn. Final 24/25 end stocks were pegged at 1,532 Mil Bu, 207 Mil above WASDE’s estimate in early September. This implies a Jun-Aug feed/residual disappearance of 637 bushels, a 4-year low. This also implies an annual feed/residual disappearance of 5,440 million bushels, the lowest since 2018/19 and down 206 million bushels year-over-year. This is important and suggests that the USDA will be challenged to maintain 25/26 feed/residual demand above 5,950 million bushels, versus its current forecast of 6,100 Mil Bushels. This, along with a larger carryover, adds 357 Mil Bu to the new crop supply and implies the final yield must be below 2.0 Bil Bu. However, it is most likely that the final yield must be below 178 BPA to pull new crop end stocks below 2.0 billion bushels, as exports and ethanol consumption are overstated. Corn supplies are abundant. The annual corn feed/residual use has failed to exceed 5,850 million over the last two decades. The market’s goal is to maximize demand through profitable end-user margins and FOB offers that compete with those from South American and Black Sea origins indefinitely ARC also noted cash HRW in W Kansas last evening was quoted at $4.03/Bu. Cash sorghum was quoted at $2.90-$3.25?Bu.

More By This Author:

Lack Of Urgency Ahead Of Grain Stocks & Small Grains Summary - The Corn & Ethanol Report
The Corn & Ethanol Report - Thursday, Sep. 25
The Corn & Ethanol Report - Tuesday, Sep. 23